Table 2

Baseline prevalence and prevalence in 2050 under scenario of 10% reduction (ideal scenario would result in exposure of optimal levels hence zero risk exposure)

	Age group	Baseline prevalence in 2016				Prevalence in 2050 under model of 10% reduction
	Age group	Men, %		Women, %		Men, %		Women, %
Alcohol consumption. % consuming alcohol in the past month.20 Theoretical minimum exposure: no exposure (see online supplemental table 1)	0–15	0		0		0		0
	15–20	44		28		33		24
	20–25	62		37		55		31
	25–30	62		37		61		29
	30–35	54		29		58		33
	35–39	49		31		52		23
	40–44	48		25		55		28
	45–49	46		24		46		22
	50–55	40		18		45		16
	55–59	39		15		38		8
	60–64	29		11		31		10
	65+	56		49		31		10
Physical activity: % of non-compliers recommendation (table 1)	0–14	0		0		0		0
	15–24	48		80		43		71
	25–44	63		79		57		70
	45–64	66		77		60		69
Tobacco consumption (% of current smokers). Theoretical minimal exposure: No current smoking	0–9	0.00		0.00		0.00		0.00
	10–14	1.62		0.68		1.46		0.61
	15–19	10.89		2.58		9.8		2.32
	20–24	18.33		5		16.5		4.5
	25–29	17.62		6.61		15.86		5.95
	30–34	14.87		4.85		13.38		4.36
	35–39	11.67		4.73		10.5		4.25
	40–44	10.75		5.25		9.67		4.72
	45–49	11.55		6.9		10.4		6.21
	50–54	14.1		7.95		12.69		7.15
	55–59	13.93		7.11		12.54		6.4
	60–64	12.7		4.9		11.43		4.41
	65–69	12.7		4.9		11.43		4.41
	70+	12.7		4.9		11.43		4.41
		2016				2050 (Ideal BMI)
		Men		Women		Men		Women
		Mean	(SD)	Mean	(SD)	Mean	(SD)	Mean	(SD)
Body mass index (BMI). Theoretical minimal exposure: Comply with ideal BMI (see table 1)	0–4	17.04	(2.02)	16.5	(2.76)	15.58	−1	15.48	−1
	5–17	17.9	(8.16)	18.12	(5.25)	18	−1	18.23	−1
	18–22	23.1	(4.02)	23.2	(4.67)	21.7	−1	21.7	−1
	23–27	24.8	(4.75)	25.1	(5.59)	21.7	−1	21.7	−1
	28–32	26.5	(9.08)	26.7	(5.42)	21.7	−1	21.7	−1
	33–37	26.2	(5.46)	26.9	(5.95)	21.7	−1	21.7	−1
	38–42	26.7	(5.31)	26.8	(4.77)	21.7	−1	21.7	−1
	43–47	25.94	(4.16)	27.86	(5.98)	21.7	−1	21.7	−1
	48–49	25.94	(5.61)	28.02	(5.3)	21.7	−1	21.7	−1
	50–75	25.55	(4.55)	27.56	(5.44)	21.7	−1	21.7	−1