Table 3

Scenario analyses for the total eligible population and equity scenarios for Māori (95% uncertainty intervals)

ScenariosCost of intervention (NZ$; millions)Net cost (NZ$; millions)Total HALYs gainedICER
Default68 (58 to 80)105 (87 to 126)3120 (2240 to 4170)NZ$34 400 (NZ$27 500 to NZ$42 900)
Discounting 0%78 (65 to 90)131 (106 to 158)4780 (3390 to 6490)NZ$27 900 (NZ$22 400 to NZ$34 800)
Discounting 6%60 (50 to 71)88 (73 to 104)2120 (1530 to 2840)NZ$42 400 (NZ$34 000 to NZ$52 800)
100% screening coverage95 (86 to 104)155 (135 to 177)4480 (3290 to 5840)NZ$35 200 (NZ$28 500 to NZ$43 800)
Screening cost 200%123 (106-139)160 (136 to 186)3130 (2210 to 4190)NZ$52 200 (NZ$41 700 to NZ$66 000)
Diagnostic cost 200%71 (60 to 82)109 (90 to 129)3130 (2240 to 4100)NZ$35 400 (NZ$28 300 to NZ$44 600)
Screening cost weight 1.692104 (87 to 120)142 (118 to 167)3140 (2210 to 4220)NZ$46 116 (NZ$36 277 to NZ$58 270)
Lead time double68 (57 to 79)106 (87 to 126)3141 (2217 to 4174)NZ$34 400 (NZ$27 478 to NZ$43 198)
Invitation costs 150% (to account for costs of equal coverage)71 (60 to 82)108 (89 to 128)3110 (2190 to 4160)NZ$35 500 (NZ$28 400 to NZ$44 400)
No smoking cessation in eligible cohort (cohort remains eligible over lifetime)*86 (72 to 100)136 (111 to 161)4300 (3100 to 5700)NZ$32 100 (NZ$25 800 to NZ$39 800)
Complication rate 15%68 (57 to 79)107 (88 to 127)3150 (2280 to 4200)NZ$34 500 (NZ$27 700 to NZ$43 000)
Overdiagnosis 11%68 (57 to 79)106 (87 to 126)3100 (2210 to 4110)NZ$34 700 (NZ$27 800 to NZ$42 900)
Equity scenarios (Māori results)
Default model9.3 (7.7 to 10.8)18 (14 to 22)660 (470 to 880)NZ$27 400 (NZ$22 100 to NZ$33 700)
1. Māori lung cancer stage-specific survival replaced with non-Māori values (for Māori who are screened)9.3 (7.7 to 10.8)21 (16 to 27)890 (630 to 1190)
36% increase
NZ$24 200 (NZ$19 500 to NZ$29 600)
2. Māori background mortality replaced with non-Māori values9.8 (8.3 to 11.4)19.7 (15.8 to 24.2)820 (590 to 1100)
25% increase
NZ$24 400 (NZ$19 800 to NZ$30 000)
3. Māori background morbidity replaced with non-Māori values9.3 (7.9 to 10.8)17.8 (14.3 to 21.8)740 (530 to 990)
13.5% increase
NZ$24 200 (NZ$19 900 to NZ$29 200)
4. Scenarios 2 and 39.9 (8.3 to 11.4)19.8 (15.6 to 24.3)930 (670 to 1220)
42% increase
NZ$21 400 (NZ$17 800 to NZ$25 800)
  • *Costs associated with background morbidity and mortality were adjusted to reflect the altered age structure of the eligible cohort.

  • HALY, health-adjusted life-year; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio.