Unadjusted and adjusted* ORs (AORs) and 95% CIs from logistic regression models of the association between adolescent drinking frequency and sustained binge drinking in young adulthood (n=787), Nicotine Dependence in Teens (1999–2011)
| N | Sustained binge drinking† (%) | OR (95% CI) | AOR (95% CI) | Predictive value‡ | ||
| Drinking frequency trajectory groups | Late triers | 121 | 14 | Ref | Ref | 0.6 |
| Decreasers | 61 | 21.3 | 2.0 (0.7–5.7) | 1.6 (0.4–5.0) | ||
| Late escalators | 96 | 27.1 | 3.4 (1.5–9.2) | 3.5 (1.4–10.0) | ||
| Early slow escalators | 136 | 31.6 | 4.4 (2.2–11.6) | 5.5 (2.6–15.1) | ||
| Steady drinkers | 109 | 35.8 | 5.1 (2.4–13.4) | 5.8 (2.7–16.8) | ||
| Early rapid escalators | 123 | 35.8 | 5.7 (2.7–15.0) | 7.5 (3.4–23.2) | ||
| Early frequent drinkers | 141 | 53.3 | 15.6 (7.6–41.1) | 17.0 (7.5–61.2) | ||
| Drinking frequency at age 12§ | Never | 449 | 24.9 | Ref | Ref | 0.38 |
| A bit to try | 225 | 44 | 2.7 (1.8–4.0) | 2.6 (1.7–3.9) | ||
| 1–2 times a month | 63 | 46 | 3.0 (1.5–6.1) | 2.8 (1.3–6.1) | ||
| Weekly¶ | 15 | 46.7 | 3.2 (0.6–7.3) | 2.2 (0.4–12.8) | ||
| Drinking frequency at age 17§ | Never | 188 | 19.1 | Ref | Ref | 0.57 |
| A bit to try | 56 | 14.3 | 0.6 (0.2–1.4) | 0.6 (0.2–1.5) | ||
| 1–2 times a month | 227 | 33.5 | 2.2 (1.4–3.5) | 2.7 (1.7–4.6) | ||
| Weekly¶ | 134 | 57.5 | 5.7 (3.3–9.8) | 5.5 (3.2–9.8) | ||
| Age of drinking onset | Never | 79 | 13.9 | Ref | Ref | 0.39 |
| <13 years | 142 | 41.6 | 7.8 (3.3–23.8) | 7.6 (3.0–24.1) | ||
| 13–15 years | 281 | 31 | 4.5 (1.8–13.7) | 4.9 (1.9–15.7) | ||
| >15 years | 86 | 23.3 | 3.3 (1.2–10.9) | 3.2 (1.1–11.0) | ||
| Age at onset of drinking monthly or more often** | Never | 158 | 18.4 | Ref | Ref | 0.48 |
| <13 years | 127 | 44.9 | 8.3 (3.9–19.0) | 8.2 (3.7–19.6) | ||
| 13–15 years | 113 | 36.1 | 5.8 (3.0–12.4) | 6.6 (3.3–14.8) | ||
| >15 years | 189 | 32.3 | 4.6 (2.3–10.1) | 5.1 (2.4–11.5) | ||
| Sensitivity analyses | ||||||
| Drinking frequency 7th grade†† | Never | 439 | 24.6 | Ref | Ref | 0.41 |
| A bit to try | 186 | 40.9 | 2.3 (1.5–3.4) | 2.3 (1.5–3.6) | ||
| 1–2 times a month | 113 | 49.6 | 3.7 (2.3–6.2) | 3.4 (2.0–6.0) | ||
| Weekly¶ | 33 | 51.5 | 4.3 (1.6–11.5) | 4.4 (1.6–12.5) | ||
| Drinking frequency 11th grade†† | Never | 181 | 17.7 | Ref | Ref | 0.59 |
| A bit to try | 47 | 14.9 | 0.9 (0.3–2.0) | 0.8 (0.3–1.9) | ||
| 1–2 times a month | 260 | 32.3 | 2.3 (1.5–3.8) | 3.2 (1.9–5.4) | ||
| Weekly¶ | 149 | 56.4 | 6.7 (4.0–11.5) | 7.5 (4.4–13.3) | ||
*Adjusted for sex, mother university-educated, family status, language spoken at home, parent smoking and friends smoking at baseline. Because of missing values on covariates, 186 participants were excluded from adjusted analyses.
†Percentages are unadjusted.
‡The predictive value of each alcohol use variable represents the additional predictive information provided by the inclusion of the variable in the model compared with the information provided by a model containing covariates only. Likelihood ratio tests for all predictive value estimates were statistically significant at p<0.001.
§Drinking frequency was measured in cycle 1 at age 12 years on average, and cycle 20 at age 17 years on average.
¶Due to the low number of participants endorsing the ‘usually every day’ response option, we collapsed this and the ‘once or a couple of times a week’ option into a ‘weekly’ category.
**Drinking monthly or more often included participants who endorsed the ‘once or a couple of times a month’, ‘once or a couple of times a week’, or the ‘usually every day’ response options.
††Drinking frequency in each grade is represented by the participant’s modal frequency over the four cycles in the grade (ie, cycles 1–4 for 7th grade; cycles 17–20 for 11th grade).