Table 2

Incremental costs, savings and benefits accrued through 100% detection of high risk conditions compared with current detection rates. 95% credible intervals obtained through probabilistic sensitivity analysis are shown in brackets

5 year horizon10 year horizon25 year horizon
Current care managementNICE guidelines managementCurrent care managementNICE guidelines managementCurrent care managementNICE guidelines management
Net total costs£2.4b
(−£3.4b to £6.0 b)		£7.3b
(−£6.3b to £15.3b)		−£1.0b
(−£14.9b to £7.2b)		£5.0b
(−£23.2b to £22.5b)		−£67.9b
(−£113b to −£32.4b)		−£61.2b
(−£137b to −£10b)
Intervention costs£7.4b
(£5.7b to £11.3b)		£20.9b
(£17.3b to £29.3b)		£13.2b
(£9.8b to £20.1b)		£37.1b
(£29.7b to £52.3b)		£24.9b
(£15.9b to £38.8b)		£74.4b
(£56.2b to £104.7b)
Other NHS and PSS costs−£5.0b
(−£12.7b to −£1.1b)		−£13.6b
(−£31.9b to−£4.6b)		−£ 14.2b
(−£31.9b to −£4.8b)		−£32.1b
(−£69.3b to −£11.7b)		−£92.8b
(−£145b to −£56b)		−£135.6b
(−£226b to −£77b)
Total CVD cases−371 000
(−660 000 to −174 000)		−891 000
(−1.56m to −0.43m)		−879 000
(−1.3m to −533 000)		−1.72m
(−2.67m to −1.03m)		−3.36m
(−4.20m to −2.53m)		−5.23m
(−6.64m to −3.98m)
 of which MI−81 000
(−195 000 to −8000)		−189 000
(−429 000 to −36 000)		−203 000
(−399 000 to −53 000)		−402 000
(−804 000 to −116 000)		−837 000
(−1.39m to −0.37m)		−1.36m
(−2.24m to −0.60m)
 of which stroke−123 000
(−337 000 to −16 000)		−301 000
(−779 000 to −63 000)		−299 000
(−684 000 to 67 000)		−608 000
(−1.41m to −0.16m)		−1.28m
(−2.28m to −0.41m)		−2.01m
(−3.71m to −0.69m)
Life years95 000
(5000 to 233 000)		264 000
(73 000 to 598 000)		473 000
(141 000 to 953 000)		1.12m
(0.44m to 2.20m)		3.28m
(2.08m to 4.83m)		5.68m
(3.33m to 9.00m)
QALYs187 000
(45 000 to 416 000)		540 000
(206 000 to 1.13m)		747 000
(302 000 to 1.40m)		1.79m
(0.79m to 3.40m)		4.93m
(3.38m to 6.86m)		8.10m
(5.04m to 12.19m)
Net monetary benefit£1.3b
(−£4.3b to £10.5b)		£3.5b
(−£9.4b to £27.4b)		£15.9b
(£0.7b to £40.9b)		£30.8b
(−£3.6b to £87.1b)		£166b
(£107b to £242b)		£223b
(£123b to £366b)

  • CVD, cardiovascular disease; MI, myocardial infarction; NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; QALY, quality adjusted life year.