Incremental costs, savings and benefits accrued through 100% detection of high risk conditions compared with current detection rates. 95% credible intervals obtained through probabilistic sensitivity analysis are shown in brackets
5 year horizon | 10 year horizon | 25 year horizon | ||||
Current care management | NICE guidelines management | Current care management | NICE guidelines management | Current care management | NICE guidelines management | |
Net total costs | £2.4b (−£3.4b to £6.0 b) | £7.3b (−£6.3b to £15.3b) | −£1.0b (−£14.9b to £7.2b) | £5.0b (−£23.2b to £22.5b) | −£67.9b (−£113b to −£32.4b) | −£61.2b (−£137b to −£10b) |
Intervention costs | £7.4b (£5.7b to £11.3b) | £20.9b (£17.3b to £29.3b) | £13.2b (£9.8b to £20.1b) | £37.1b (£29.7b to £52.3b) | £24.9b (£15.9b to £38.8b) | £74.4b (£56.2b to £104.7b) |
Other NHS and PSS costs | −£5.0b (−£12.7b to −£1.1b) | −£13.6b (−£31.9b to−£4.6b) | −£ 14.2b (−£31.9b to −£4.8b) | −£32.1b (−£69.3b to −£11.7b) | −£92.8b (−£145b to −£56b) | −£135.6b (−£226b to −£77b) |
Total CVD cases | −371 000 (−660 000 to −174 000) | −891 000 (−1.56m to −0.43m) | −879 000 (−1.3m to −533 000) | −1.72m (−2.67m to −1.03m) | −3.36m (−4.20m to −2.53m) | −5.23m (−6.64m to −3.98m) |
of which MI | −81 000 (−195 000 to −8000) | −189 000 (−429 000 to −36 000) | −203 000 (−399 000 to −53 000) | −402 000 (−804 000 to −116 000) | −837 000 (−1.39m to −0.37m) | −1.36m (−2.24m to −0.60m) |
of which stroke | −123 000 (−337 000 to −16 000) | −301 000 (−779 000 to −63 000) | −299 000 (−684 000 to 67 000) | −608 000 (−1.41m to −0.16m) | −1.28m (−2.28m to −0.41m) | −2.01m (−3.71m to −0.69m) |
Life years | 95 000 (5000 to 233 000) | 264 000 (73 000 to 598 000) | 473 000 (141 000 to 953 000) | 1.12m (0.44m to 2.20m) | 3.28m (2.08m to 4.83m) | 5.68m (3.33m to 9.00m) |
QALYs | 187 000 (45 000 to 416 000) | 540 000 (206 000 to 1.13m) | 747 000 (302 000 to 1.40m) | 1.79m (0.79m to 3.40m) | 4.93m (3.38m to 6.86m) | 8.10m (5.04m to 12.19m) |
Net monetary benefit | £1.3b (−£4.3b to £10.5b) | £3.5b (−£9.4b to £27.4b) | £15.9b (£0.7b to £40.9b) | £30.8b (−£3.6b to £87.1b) | £166b (£107b to £242b) | £223b (£123b to £366b) |
CVD, cardiovascular disease; MI, myocardial infarction; NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; QALY, quality adjusted life year.