Table 3

Mean (over birth decades) decade of birth on decade of birth improvements in morbidity for the study period, and projections into the subsequent decade by sex and deprivation

StratifiedGroupCurrent improvementsProjected improvements
Hospital admission rate (lnHR)Five-year mortality after admission (lnHR)Combined (lnHR)Hospital admission rate (lnHR)Five-year mortality after admission (lnHR)Combined (lnHR)
None−0.1182−0.1866−0.3047−0.1182−0.1235−0.2418
SexM−0.1428−0.1913−0.3340−0.1428−0.1273−0.2701
SexF−0.0971−0.1823−0.2794−0.0971−0.1130−0.2101
SIMD1−0.1154−0.2204−0.3360−0.1154−0.1280−0.2433
SIMD2−0.1157−0.1592−0.2743−0.1157−0.0456−0.1610
SIMD3−0.1202−0.1186−0.2392−0.1202−0.0370−0.1572
SIMD4−0.1418−0.1759−0.3201−0.1418−0.0541−0.1982
SIMD5−0.1231−0.1731−0.2958−0.1231−0.0914−0.2145
SIMD6−0.1305−0.1928−0.3227−0.1305−0.0998−0.2303
SIMD7−0.1233−0.1787−0.3044−0.1233−0.1109−0.2343
SIMD8−0.1305−0.2097−0.3402−0.1305−0.1422−0.2726
SIMD9−0.0926−0.1619−0.2546−0.0926−0.1033−0.1959
SIMD10−0.0950−0.1970−0.2920−0.0950−0.1092−0.2043

  • Mortality improvements were estimated from morbidity records by combining the mean improvement in hospitalisation rate across birth cohorts and the improvement in disease severity between 2001 and 2011. This was then projected forward assuming improvements in age-adjusted hospitalisation rate between birth cohorts remained constant and improvements in severity remained proportional to the (now reduced) overall mortality of the disease group.

  • SIMD, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.