Table 2

Projections of the expected age of death for individuals in different ages and sex. Risk factors are at their reference values, and the value of one risk factor was changed at a time

Modified risk factor*†‡MenWomen
Age305070305070
All risk factors were fixed to their reference levels§88.188.690.189.389.590.4
Causal effect fixing risk factors except the biological risk factors to their mode values86.887.389.088.488.689.6
Smoking?
 Never*86.887.389.088.488.689.6
 Quitted more than 6 months ago85.686.288.187.487.788.9
 Current, 0 cigarettes per day82.683.485.885.085.486.9
 Current, 20 cigarettes per day80.281.284.182.983.485.3
Have you ever been diagnosed as having diabetes, and how is it treated?
 No*86.887.389.088.488.689.6
 Yes, dietary counselling85.486.088.087.387.688.8
 Yes, medicine prescribed80.281.284.283.183.685.5
If you drink milk, what kind is it usually?
 Skimmed milk87.988.489.989.489.690.5
 Low-fat milk or I do not drink milk*86.887.389.088.488.689.6
 Whole or full milk84.585.287.386.586.888.1
How much do you exercise and stress yourself physically in your leisure time?
 Inactive85.085.687.687.087.388.5
 Low*86.887.389.088.488.689.6
 High87.487.989.588.889.090.0
Have you felt tensioned, stressed or under a lot of strain during the past month?
 Yes, my life is almost unbearable84.084.786.986.186.587.8
 Yes, quite more so than people usually are85.686.288.187.487.788.9
 Yes, somewhat, but no more than what is usual*86.887.389.088.488.689.6
 Not at all86.286.888.687.988.189.2
  • *Mode values of risk factors were used as the risk factor values for the reference individual.

  • †Intermediating biological risk factors were handled using the causal calculus.

  • ‡Projections for other risk factors are found in online supplementary table S3.

  • §For full conditional projections also fixed body mass index (BMI)=24.4, non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol=3.8, diastolic blood pressure=79, systolic blood pressure=130.