Parameter | Branch | Baseline value | DSA values | |
Low | High | |||
Discount rate30 | Both branches | 0.035 | 0 | 0.06 |
Total number of women in cohort24 | Both branches | 2 247 439 | – | – |
Total women in cohort aged 25–29 years24 | Both branches | 373 645 | – | – |
Total women in cohort aged 30–64 years24 | Both branches | 1 873 794 | – | – |
Cost data | ||||
Cost of colposcopy without biopsy29 | Both branches | £137.00 | £128.07 | £217.75 |
Cost of colposcopy with biopsy29 | Both branches | £184.00 | £177.84 | £276.87 |
Cost of LBC28 | Both branches | £33.71 | £8.76 | n/a |
Total cost of HR-HPV test (sample collection cost+cost of HPV test) | Both branches | £30.53 | £20.82 | £42.88 |
Sample collection cost27 49–51 | Both branches | £15.10 | £10.82 | £22.88 |
Cost of HR-HPV test50 | Both branches | £15.43 | £10.00 | £20.00 |
Probability data | ||||
Probability of biopsy with colposcopy24 | 0.4510 | 0.3383 | 0.5638 | |
Probability of positive HPV test at year 132 33 | DNA | 0.2026 | 0.1520 | 0.2533 |
mRNA | 0.1232 | 0.0924 | 0.1541 | |
Probability of positive cytology year 1 (for women with positive HPV test in year 1)32 33 | DNA | 0.1980 | 0.1485 | 0.2475 |
mRNA | 0.2529 | 0.1897 | 0.3161 | |
Probability of positive HPV test at year 2 (for women with normal reflex cytology in year 1)32 33 | DNA | 0.6486 | 0.4865 | 0.8108 |
mRNA | 0.5505 | 0.4129 | 0.6882 | |
Probability of positive cytology year 2 (for women with positive HPV test in year 2)32 33 | DNA | 0.2448 | 0.1836 | 0.3060 |
mRNA | 0.3713 | 0.2785 | 0.4641 | |
Probability of positive HPV test at year 3 (for women with normal reflex cytology in year 2)32 33 | DNA | 0.4283 | 0.3212 | 0.5354 |
mRNA | 0.3153 | 0.2365 | 0.3942 | |
Probability of loss to follow-up for colposcopy24 | Both branches | 0.2540 | 0.0 | 0.3175 |
Probability of loss to follow-up for HPV recall24 | Both branches | 0.5593 | 0.0 | 0.6991 |
See figure 1 for information on previous test results that the probabilities are dependent on.
HR-HPV, high-risk human papilloma virus; LBC, liquid based cytology; mRNA, messenger RNA.