Table 2

Transition probabilities reported in different models for no preventive intervention (or standard care)

ReferenceMeasure of Intermediate Hyperglycaemia (IH)CountryNormoglycaemia (NG) to IHIH to NGNG to T2DT2D to NGIH to T2DT2D to IHMortality rates (relative risk*)
Johansson et al,†27FPGSweden
Herman et al†38IGTUSA10.80%49
Palmer et al37IGTAustralia, France, Germany, Switzerland and UKOverall 11% for standard care
varies by age (10.8% to 11.6%) and body mass index (9.0% to 14.3%)50		IH:1.37 (1.05 to 1.79)
Undiagnosed T2D: 1.76 (1.17 to 2.66) Diagnosed T2D: 2.26 (1.78 to 2.87)
Zhuo et al†40HbA1cUSA0.07% to 18.9% by HbA1c51
Chen et al39 Taiwan1.10%52
Zhou et al36HbA1cUSA0%0%0%
Schaufler and Wolff41IGT or IFGGermanymale, 2.23% female, 1.45%53Male, 2.51% and female, 1.66%53Male, 4.79% female, 4.23%53Source given for higher mortality rates for T2D54
Gillies et al29IGTUK<65,1.66%
>65, 2.49%55		1.96% based on 12 studies55–66Increased risk of death with diabetes
(HR) 0.756 (SE=0.087)67
1% increase in HbA1c (HR) 0.104 (SE=0.03968
Palmer and Tucker 30IGTAustraliaReported over time for standard care69

  • 10%, year 1

  • 5.6% year 2

  • 3.5% years >2

Reported for standard care 4.6%550%Reported over time for standard care

  • 11%, years 1 to 350

  • 5.6%, years >350

IH: 1.50 (1.10 to 2.00)
‘undiagnosed’ T2D: 1.30 (0.90 to 2.66) ‘diagnosed’ T2D 2.30 (1.60 to 3.20)
70
Ikeda et al42IGTJapan3.10%71For standard care 33.1%720%0%For standard care 6.6%720%IH: 1.35
T2DM: 3.0373
Smith et al43 USA4%740.40%750%10.80%380%IH: 1.776 stable T2D: 277 complicated T2D: 2.478
Neumann et al28IGTSwedenRisk equation reportedRisk equation reported0%0%Risk equation reportedRisk equation reportedNo increased risk for IH.
T2D mortality not reported.
Caro et al31IGTCanada16.30% (original estimate)16.20%
(original estimate)		0%0%6.30%
(original estimate)		0%IH: 1.45
(original estimate)
Neumann et al32IGTGermany16.30%3116.20%310%0%6.00%790.50% (original estimate)
Liu et al33IGTChina1.28%8011.60%810%0%Initiation ages
25: 6.44%
40: 16.7%
60: 57.8%
82–84		0%
Wong et al34IGTHong Kong16.30%3116.20%310%0%For usual practice, years 1 to 3, 11%;58 years >4, 5.6%500%IH: 1.50 (1.10 to 2.00)
T2D: 2.30 (1.60 to 3.20)30
Roberts et al35IGTEngland6.33%558.97%850%0%4.55%440%IH: 1.50
T2D: 1.986
HbA1cEngland6.86%558.97%850%0%3.55%440%IH: 1.2
T2D: 1.686
IFG (ADA)England6.86%558.97%850%0%4.74%440%IH: 1.2
T2D: 1.6
86
Range (for single probabilities)IGT 1.28%–16.30%8.97%–16.20%
(and for standard care from 3.5% to 33.1%)		0.00%–2.5% (male)
(and 4.6% for standard care)		0%1.96%–10.8%
(and 11% for standard care)		0.00%–0.5%IH:1.35 to 1.7
T2D: 1.76 to 3.03
Meta-analysesIGT 4.55%44IH: 1.32 (1.23 to 1.40)11
HbA1c 3.55%44IH: 0.97 (0.88 to 1.07)11
IFG (ADA) 3.54%44IH: 1.13,
(1.02 to 1.25)11

  • 0%: not allowed.

  • *Relative risk over NG specified in,28 29 31 34,42 ranges in parentheses are 95% CIs.

  • †Models described elsewhere.

  • FPG, fasting plasma glucose; HbA1c, glycated haemoglobin; IGT, impaired glucose tolerance; T2D, type 2 diabetes.