Example impacts on CPI and family food basket costs from analytical conditioning of the Bayes Net to the 5th and 95th percentile projected costs of meat, under Brexit Deal and No-deal scenarios
| Meat price impacts on food basket mean costs: scenario-based Bayes Net analytical conditioning | ||||
| Scenario | CPI basket subfoods cost: mean percentage change* | Family basket: mean cost change* | CPI basket subfoods cost: 95th percentile percentage change* | Family basket: 95th percentile cost change* |
| Meat price → projected 5th percentile cost | ||||
| Deal (meat cost −10%) | −0.1% (+6.4%) | −£1.26 (+£3.78) | +6.2% (+16.9%) | +£5.01 (+£10.41) |
| No-deal (meat cost −11%) | +8.6% (+24.0%) | +£5.71 (+£13.97) | +24.4% (+51.7%) | +£21.13 (+£31.02) |
| Meat price → projected 95th percentile cost | ||||
| Deal (meat cost +29%) | +13.5% (+6.4%) | +£14.66 (+£3.78) | +20.6% (+16.9%} | +£21.61 (+£10.41) |
| No-deal (meat cost +80%) | +44.0% (+24.0%) | +£44.84 (+£13.97) | +62.2% (+51.7%) | +£61.56 (+£31.02) |
*Corresponding base model results are shown in brackets.
CPI, Consumer Price Index.