Aggregated food price change estimates
| Food category percentage price changes by June 2020 Median (5th, 95th percentiles) | ||
| CPI category | Brexit Deal | Brexit No-deal |
| Soft drinks and so on | 6 (0, 26) | 8 (0, 47) |
| Coffee, tea and cocoa | 2 (−9, 19) | 4 (−5, 69) |
| Sugar, jam, and so on | 7 (−9, 20) | 19 (−5, 82) |
| Vegetables | 3 (−10, 20) | 9 (−18, 63) |
| Fruit | 5 (−10, 24) | 16 (−8, 51) |
| Oil and fats | 5 (−9, 20) | 18 (−8, 87) |
| Milk, cheese and eggs | 6 (−9, 20) | 23 (−5, 82) |
| Fish | 4 (−9, 19) | 5 (−13, 41) |
| Meat | 6 (−10, 29) | 18 (−11, 80) |
| Bread and cereals | 4 (−9, 19) | 10 (−7, 83) |
| Overall % change Office for National Statistics CPI subfoods, with category weights | Mean +6.4%±6.0 Median +6.1% (−2.7 to +16.9) | Mean +24.0%±15.4 Median +22.5%(+1.49 to +51.7) |
| Food basket cost changes by June 2020 (in £ s ) | ||
| Change in CPI weekly cost relative to 2018 year-end basket total £58.00* | Mean +£3.78±£3.76 Median +£3.53 (−£1.90 to +£10.41) | Mean +£13.97±£9.52 Median +£13.00 (+£0.08 to +£31.02) |
| Change in family of 4 healthy food basket basis weekly cost £93.56† | Mean +£6.30±£6.71 Median +£5.80 (−£3.68 to +£18.17) | Mean +£22.58±£16.14 Median +£20.98 (−£1.07 to +£50.98) |
| Change in single pensioner healthy food basket basis weekly cost £35.44† | Mean +£2.28±£2.56 Median +£2.09 (−£1.51 to +£6.80) | Mean +£8.11±£6.23 Median +£7.55 (−£1.05 to +£18.99) |
‘Brexit deal’ means a deal similar to the present arrangements will be implemented, so little disruption or additional costs to supply routes. ‘Brexit no-deal’ means that such arrangements will be discontinued and individual trade deals would need to be negotiated. Numerical values are medians (90% credible intervals).
*Based on Office for National Statistics Table A2 2018 year-end data (March 2018): selected basket subfood category weekly costs; total for the 10 items=£58.00.
†Based on MacMahon and Weld37 Northern Ireland minimum essential healthy basket subfood category weekly costs at November 2014 Tesco prices. For two adults and two children, one in preschool (aged 2–4) and one in primary school (aged 6–11), total cost for the 10 items=£93.56; for a single pensioner, the corresponding selected items cost=£35.44.
CPI, Consumer Price Index.