Table 2

Values for model variables*

VariableBaseRangeDistributionReference
Population
 Population of children under 5 years in representative rural municipality1904280–6883Normal39
 Population of children under 5 years in Aklan‡2318NANA39 40
 Population of children under 5 years in Nueva Ecija‡2424NANA39 40
 Undiscounted life expectancy at 3 years6965.55–72.45*Normal58
Epidemiology
Pneumonia
 Probability of getting pneumonia in representative rural municipality0.10280.0838–0.1233Beta23
 Probability of getting pneumonia in Aklan‡0.1301NANA22 23 59
 Probability of getting pneumonia in Nueva Ecija‡0.0502NANA22 23 59
 Proportion of cases that are severe0.100.05–0.15*Beta41
Diarrhoea
 Probability of getting diarrhoea in representative rural municipality0.73790.6835–0.7928Beta23
 Probability of getting diarrhoea in Aklan‡0.5863NANA22 23 59
 Probability of getting diarrhoea in Nueva Ecija‡0.4872NANA22 23 59
 Proportion of cases that are moderate0.3470.10–0.4995*Beta42
 Proportion of cases that are severe0.50.05–0.10*Beta42
Annual transition probabilities
Pneumonia
 Probability of dying at age three for causes other than pneumonia0.0040.0038–0.0041Beta60
 Probability of seeking treatment given mild disease0.890.50–1*Beta61
 Probability of dying with treatment of mild disease0.0350.0263–0.0438*Beta43 44
 Probability of dying without treatment of mild disease0.050.02–0.065*Beta44
 Probability of seeking treatment given severe disease0.910.50–1*Beta61
 Probability of dying without treatment of severe disease0.210.05–0.25*Beta44
 Probability of dying with treatment of severe disease0.14770.110–0.184*Beta43 44
Diarrhoea
 Probability of dying at age 3 for causes other than diarrhoea0.00460.0045–0.0047Beta60
 Probability of seeking treatment given mild disease0.41750.362–0.447Beta62
 Probability of dying given no treatment of mild disease0.00180.0012–0.0027Beta46
 Probability of dying with treatment of mild disease0.00120.0009–0.0014*Beta45 46
 Probability of seeking treatment given moderate disease0.41750.362–0.447Beta62
 Probability of dying given no treatment of moderate disease0.00180.0012–0.0027Beta46
 Probability of dying with treatment of mild disease0.00120.0009–0.0014*Beta45 46
 Probability of seeking treatment given severe disease0.41750.362–0.447Beta62
 Probability of dying given no treatment of severe disease0.00580.0039–0.0087Beta46
 Probability of dying given treatment of severe disease0.00140.001–0.0022Beta45 46
Treatment
 Probability that doctor is at the RHU with DTTB0.90.8–1BetaExpert opinion
 Probability that doctor is at the RHU without DTTB§0.150.075–0.225*BetaExpert opinion
 Probability that patient is treated when doctor is present0.750.50–1BetaExpert opinion; FHSIS
 Probability that patient has other source of care when doctor is not present¶0.80.7–1*BetaExpert opinion; FHSIS
 Probability that patient is treated by other source of care when doctor is not present0.750.50–1BetaAssumed by authors
Costs (in 2017 PHP)**
Pneumonia
 Societal cost of treating severe pneumonia episode48 72133 395–64300Gamma49–51
 Healthcare cost of treating severe pneumonia episode47 10132 577–61626Gamma49–51
 Societal cost of treating mild pneumonia episode67654694–7457Gamma49 50 62
 Healthcare cost of treating mild pneumonia episode54854377–6582Gamma49 50 62
Diarrhoea
 Societal cost of treating a mild diarrhoea episode67655343–8222Gamma49 51 62
 Healthcare cost of treating a mild diarrhoea episode64575165–7748Gamma49 51 62
 Societal cost of treating a moderate diarrhoea episode11 9606629–17363Gamma49 62
 Healthcare cost of treating a moderate diarrhoea episode11 4066323–16488Gamma49 62
 Societal cost of treating a severe diarrhoea episode27 57519 949–35617Gamma49 62 63
 Healthcare cost of treating a severe diarrhoea episode25 70919 234–32183Gamma49 62 63
Other costs (discounted)
 Lifetime consumption (in thousands)16971079–2817Gamma64
 Lifetime productivity (in thousands)22351406–3830Gamma64
Human resources (in thousands)
 Annual cost of deploying a DTTB physician17211500–2500GammaDoH data
 Annual cost of MHO or RHP hired locally by municipality926880–976GammaDBM data†
Utilities
 Alive10.9–1BetaAssumed by authors
 Dead0NANAAssumed by authors
 Discount rate0.030.02–0.08NAAssumed by authors
  • *Value assumed or set by authors.

  • †Base value and range calculated by authors based on the references cited.

  • ‡No ranges and distributions are specified because only base case analyses were conducted using these data.

  • §Municipalities who do not participate in DTTB may still successfully hire a full-time physician to work as a RHP or MHO, or occasionally receive temporary physicians deployed by the provincial government or by a non-governmental organisation.

  • ¶In many rural and underserved municipalities, RHUs are the only source of care, though some communities have privately practicing physicians or district hospitals nearby.

  • **Details behind cost calculations are found in the online supplementary file 1.

  • DBM, Department of Budget and Management; DoH, Department of Health; DTTB, Doctors to the Barrios; FHSIS, Field Health Services Information System; MHO, municipal health officer; NA, not applicable; PHP, Philippine pesos;RHP, rural health physician; RHU, rural health unit.