Table 1

Multinomial logistic regression analysis: association between social participation and the need for LTC or death at 9.4 years (n=9741) AOR (95% CI)—reference category: without the need for LTC and death

Variable†Survival with the need for LTCDeath
845 (8.7)2443 (25.1)
AOR (95% CI)AOR (95% CI)
Social participation (yes)0.82 (0.69 to 0.97)*0.78 (0.70 to 0.88)**
Age (per 5 years)2.06 (1.93 to 2.19)**2.16 (2.06 to 2.26)**
Gender (men)0.80 (0.67 to 0.95)*1.98 (1.76 to 2.24)**
Family (living alone)1.03 (0.78 to 1.31)0.91 (0.74 to 1.11)
Educational attainment
(>9 years)
0.92 (0.79 to 1.08)0.94 (0.85 to 1.05)
Smoking (yes)1.50 (1.19 to 1.88)**1.74 (1.51 to 2.00)**
Alcohol (yes)1.05 (0.86 to 1.30)0.92 (0.81 to 1.05)
Walking time (>30 min/day)0.80 (0.69 to 0.94)**0.73 (0.66 to 0.81)**
Household income
(>3 000 000 yen/year)
0.88 (0.75 to 1.03)0.96 (0.86 to 1.07)
One comorbidity1.39 (1.10 to 1.75)**1.28 (1.10 to 1.50)**
Two or more comorbidities1.59 (1.27 to 1.98)**1.67 (1.45 to 1.94)**
  • Note: LTC, long-term care; AOR, adjusted odds ratio; CI, confidence interval.

  • *p<0.05, **p<0.01.

  • †Adjusted age, gender, living alone or not, educational attainment, smoking, alcohol, walking time, household income, and the number ofcomorbidities.; AOR, adjusted OR; LTC, long-termcare.

  • AOR, adjusted OR; LTC, long-term care.