Table 3

Benefit-harm balance of different systolic blood pressures: probability that the lower target is better

Diabetes	CKD	CHF	Age 50–64	Age 65–74	Age 75–84
120 vs 140 mm Hg, SPRINT			Probability that lower target is better in men without stroke & without diabetes
No	No	No	0.96	1.00	1.00
No	No	Yes	0.72	0.91	0.96
No	Stage 3A	No	0.96	1.00	1.00
No	Stage 3B	No	0.53	0.92	0.99
No	Stage 4	No	0.48	0.80	0.97
No	Stage 3A	Yes	0.87	0.95	0.97
No	Stage 3B	Yes	0.43	0.74	0.89
No	Stage 4	Yes	0.41	0.64	0.82
120 vs 140 mm Hg, SPRINT			In women without stroke & without diabetes
No	No	No	0.63	0.98	1.00
No	No	Yes	0.27	0.75	0.94
No	Stage 3A	No	0.77	1.00	1.00
No	Stage 3B	No	0.12	0.69	0.99
No	Stage 4	No	0.26	0.55	0.93
No	Stage 3A	Yes	0.57	0.92	0.97
No	Stage 3B	Yes	0.06	0.34	0.80
No	Stage 4	Yes	0.20	0.31	0.60
120 vs 140 mm Hg, ACCORD			In men without stroke & with diabetes
Yes	No	No	0.71	0.89	0.93
Yes	No	Yes	0.89	0.97	0.98
Yes	Stage 3A	No	0.92	0.95	0.96
Yes	Stage 3B	No	0.66	0.85	0.91
Yes	Stage 4	No	0.45	0.74	0.89
Yes	Stage 3A	Yes	0.98	0.99	0.99
Yes	Stage 3B	Yes	0.88	0.97	0.97
Yes	Stage 4	Yes	0.71	0.93	0.96
120 vs 140 mm Hg, ACCORD			In women without stroke & with diabetes
Yes	No	No	0.37	0.70	0.81
Yes	No	Yes	0.69	0.89	0.92
Yes	Stage 3A	No	0.66	0.85	0.88
Yes	Stage 3B	No	0.31	0.54	0.73
Yes	Stage 4	No	0.33	0.51	0.69
Yes	Stage 3A	Yes	0.92	0.97	0.97
Yes	Stage 3B	Yes	0.63	0.84	0.91
Yes	Stage 4	Yes	0.57	0.78	0.88
<130 vs 131–149 mm Hg, SPS3			In men with stroke
No	No	No	0.70	0.58	0.44
No	No	Yes	0.68	0.60	0.49
Yes	No	No	0.68	0.61	0.48
Yes	No	Yes	0.66	0.59	0.54
<130 vs 131–149 mm Hg, SPS3			In women with stroke
No	No	No	0.71	0.59	0.40
No	No	Yes	0.69	0.60	0.46
Yes	No	No	0.69	0.60	0.46
Yes	No	Yes	0.67	0.62	0.50

The probability that the lower target (120 mm Hg or <130 mm Hg) is a better target than the higher target (140 mm Hg or 131 to 149 mm Hg) is shown for all subgroups (calculated from 100 000 repetitions). Subgroups are presented according to which RCT was used to inform the analysis and what targets were compared. A probability of 0.5 means that both targets have the same benefit-harm balance. Blue colour indicates the lower target was better also in additional analysis with different assumptions for baseline incidences, and orange colour indicates the higher target was better also in the additional analyses. We did not calculate the benefit-harm balance of different blood pressure targets for people with prior history of stroke and CKD, because renal outcomes that would be important for people with CKD, but rare for people without CKD, were not reported by SPS3.
CHF, chronic heart failure; CKD, chronic kidney disease; RCT, randomised clinical trial.