Associations (HRs and 95% CI) between participants' characteristics and mortality (n=3214; 432 deaths)
| Variable | Category | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 |
| HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | HR (95% CI) | ||
| Region | Western region | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Northern region | 0.83 (0.66 to 1.05) | 0.81 (0.65 to 1.02) | 0.87 (0.70 to 1.10) | 0.87 (0.69 to 1.10) | |
| Age | 1.05 (0.98 to 1.12) | 1.05 (0.98 to 1.12) | 1.02 (0.96 to 1.09) | 1.02 (0.95 to 1.09) | |
| Age x age | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) | 1.00* (1.00 to 1.00) | 1.00* (1.00 to 1.00) | |
| Sex | Men | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Wemen | 0.57** (0.45 to 0.71) | 0.57** (0.44 to 0.74) | 0.59** (0.45 to 0.77) | 0.58** (0.44 to 0.76) | |
| Country of birth | Australia | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| UK or Ireland | 1.23 (0.97 to 1.57) | 1.21 (0.95 to 1.53) | 1.20 (0.94 to 1.52) | 1.24 (0.97 to 1.58) | |
| Europe, the USSR and the Baltic states | 0.95 (0.71 to 1.28) | 0.92 (0.68 to 1.23) | 0.98 (0.73 to 1.32) | 0.98 (0.72 to 1.33) | |
| Other | 0.74 (0.36 to 1.51) | 0.77 (0.38 to 1.56) | 0.74 (0.36 to 1.50) | 0.72 (0.35 to 1.47) | |
| Education status | Up to secondary | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Trade/apprenticeship | 1.08 (0.83 to 1.40) | 1.14 (0.88 to 1.48) | 1.07 (0.83 to 1.40) | 1.09 (0.84 to 1.42) | |
| Certificate/diploma | 1.12 (0.87 to 1.43) | 1.24 (0.96 to 1.60) | 1.24 (0.96 to 1.60) | 1.22 (0.94 to 1.58) | |
| Bachelor degree or higher | 1.04 (0.65 to 1.67) | 1.16 (0.72 to 1.86) | 1.14 (0.71 to 1.82) | 1.16 (0.72 to 1.86) | |
| Marital status | Married/living with partner | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Separated/divorced | 0.81 (0.57 to 1.14) | 0.71 (0.50 to 1.00) | 0.71 (0.50 to 1.01) | 0.69* (0.48 to 0.98) | |
| Widowed | 0.96 (0.74 to 1.24) | 0.90 (0.69 to 1.16) | 0.91 (0.70 to 1.17) | 0.89 (0.69 to 1.16) | |
| Never married | 1.09 (0.70 to 1.71) | 1.01 (0.64 to 1.59) | 0.97 (0.62 to 1.53) | 0.95 (0.60 to 1.49) | |
| Income per year | Up to US$20 000 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| US$20 001–US$40 000 | 0.68** (0.53 to 0.87) | 0.66** (0.52 to 0.85) | 0.69** (0.54 to 0.89) | 0.70** (0.55 to 0.91) | |
| US$40 001–US$60 000 | 0.58** (0.40 to 0.86) | 0.59** (0.40 to 0.87) | 0.65* (0.44 to 0.96) | 0.67* (0.46 to 0.99) | |
| US$60 001–US$80 000 | 0.57 (0.32 to 1.02) | 0.64 (0.36 to 1.13) | 0.70 (0.39 to 1.25) | 0.71 (0.40 to 1.28) | |
| More than US$80 000 | 0.37** (0.18 to 0.75) | 0.42* (0.21 to 0.86) | 0.47* (0.23 to 0.96) | 0.49* (0.24 to 1.00) | |
| SEIFA | Lowest quintile | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Low quintile | 1.11 (0.84 to 1.46) | 1.10 (0.84 to 1.45) | 1.09 (0.83 to 1.44) | 1.09 (0.82 to 1.43) | |
| Middle quintile | 1.00 (0.79 to 1.27) | 1.07 (0.84 to 1.37) | 1.06 (0.83 to 1.35) | 1.04 (0.82 to 1.33) | |
| High quintile | 0.70* (0.50 to 0.99) | 0.70* (0.49 to 0.98) | 0.67* (0.47 to 0.95) | 0.65* (0.46 to 0.93) | |
| Highest quintile | 0.97 (0.59 to 1.61) | 1.07 (0.64 to 1.78) | 1.04 (0.62 to 1.74) | 1.08 (0.64 to 1.82) | |
| Alcohol risk | Non-drinkers (no risk) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Low risk | 1.05 (0.82 to 1.35) | 1.10 (0.86 to 1.40) | 1.14 (0.89 to 1.47) | ||
| Intermediate to very high risk | 1.12 (0.70 to 1.77) | 1.17 (0.74 to 1.86) | 1.17 (0.73 to 1.86) | ||
| Smoking status | Non-smoker | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Ex-smoker | 1.34* (1.07 to 1.68) | 1.27* (1.01 to 1.60) | 1.22 (0.97 to 1.54) | ||
| Current smoker | 2.31** (1.70 to 3.16) | 2.09** (1.52 to 2.87) | 2.00** (1.45 to 2.76) | ||
| PAL | Sedentary | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Low exercise level | 0.82 (0.65 to 1.04) | 0.87 (0.69 to 1.10) | 0.89 (0.70 to 1.13) | ||
| Moderate exercise level | 0.50** (0.38 to 0.66) | 0.55** (0.42 to 0.72) | 0.55** (0.42 to 0.72) | ||
| High exercise level | 0.89 (0.61 to 1.31) | 0.97 (0.66 to 1.42) | 0.97 (0.66 to 1.43) | ||
| BMI category | Normal (18.50–24.99 kg/m2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||
| Overweight (25.00–29.99 kg/m2) | 0.76* (0.60 to 0.97) | 0.74* (0.58 to 0.94) | |||
| Obese (≥30.00 kg/m2) | 0.94 (0.72 to 1.23) | 0.89 (0.68 to 1.17) | |||
| Systolic blood pressure per 10 mm Hg increase | 1.04 (0.98 to 1.09) | 1.04 (0.98 to 1.09) | |||
| FEV (%) per 10% increase | 0.93** (0.89 to 0.98) | 0.92** (0.87 to 0.97) | |||
| HbA1c | 1.18** (1.05 to 1.32) | 1.08 (0.94 to 1.25) | |||
| Mental health problem | No | 1.00 | |||
| Yes | 0.91 (0.56 to 1.50) | ||||
| Depression | No | 1.00 | |||
| Yes | 1.58 (0.87 to 2.87) | ||||
| Diabetes | No | 1.00 | |||
| Yes | 1.37 (0.98 to 1.92) | ||||
| CVD | No | 1.00 | |||
| Yes | 1.27 (0.99 to 1.62) | ||||
| Hypertension medication | No | 1.00 | |||
| Yes | 1.24 (0.96 to 1.62) | ||||
| Respiratory disease medication | No | 1.00 | |||
| Yes | 0.70 (0.43 to 1.13) | ||||
| Cholesterol lowering drug | No | 1.00 | |||
| Yes | 0.76 (0.54 to 1.08) | ||||
| Health service utilisation | 1.04 (0.97 to 1.10) | ||||
| Akaike information criterion | 6020.1 | 5976.9 | 5959.3 | 5956.3 | |
| Bayesian information criterion | 6147.7 | 6147.0 | 6159.8 | 6205.4 | |
| Harrell’s C index | 86.3% | 87.0% | 87.4% | 87.6% | |
| Somers' D index | 72.6% | 74.0% | 74.8% | 75.1% |
Model 1 was adjusted for sociodemographic factors (region, age, sex, educational status, income, SEIFA and country of birth); model 2 was additionally adjusted for behavioural factors (smoking, physical activity and alcohol intake); model 3 was additionally adjusted formetabolic factors (BMI, systolic blood pressure, FEV and HbA1c); model 4 was additionally adjusted for health status, medication use and health service utilisation (mental health status, depression, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, hypertension medication, respiratory medication, cholesterol lowering drug use and health service utilisation).
*P<0.05, **P<0.01.
BMI, body mass index; CVD, cardiovascular disease; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 s; HbA1c, glycosylated haemoglobin; PAL, physical activity level; SEIFA, Socioeconomic Indexes for Areas; USSR, Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.