Table 3

Comparison of various ARIMA models for age-standardised prostate cancer incidence

ModelConstantARMAMAPEMAPE†
ARIMA (0,1,0)2.775.70
ARIMA (1,1,0)2.470.49*4.854.86
ARIMA (0,1,1)2.570.55*5.06
ARIMA (1,1,1)2.50.240.425.14
  • *P<0.05.

  • †MAPE for out of sample forecast.

  • AR, autoregressive coefficient; MA, moving average coefficient; MAPE, mean absolute percentage error.