Models | Simulating power | Predictive power | ||||||
MAE | MER | MAPE | RMSE | MAE | MER | MAPE | RMSE | |
SARIMA | 5636.303 | 0.062 | 0.067 | 8781.186 | 5726.262 | 0.061 | 0.060 | 7104.34 |
SARIMA-GRNN | 4437.958 | 0.049 | 0.054 | 6939.078 | 5415.985 | 0.058 | 0.059 | 6155.964 |
SARIMA-NARNN | 3283.274 | 0.035 | 0.043 | 5265.82 | 5259.556 | 0.056 | 0.055 | 6418.445 |
SARIMA-NARNNX | 2878.484 | 0.031 | 0.038 | 4468.578 | 3563.179 | 0.038 | 0.038 | 4917.829 |
Percentage reductions (%) | ||||||||
D versus A | 48.930 | 50.000 | 43.284 | 49.112 | 37.775 | 37.705 | 36.667 | 30.777 |
D versus B | 27.668 | 29.032 | 23.881 | 28.134 | 32.356 | 32.787 | 35.000 | 17.428 |
D versus C | 7.182 | 6.452 | 7.463 | 9.079 | 29.625 | 29.508 | 28.333 | 21.123 |
GRNN, generalised regression neural network; MAPE, mean absolute percentage error; MER, mean error rate; MAE, mean absolute error; NARNN, non-linear autoregressive neural network; NARNNX, non-linear autoregressive neural network with exogenous input; RMSE, root mean square error; SARIMA, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average.