Performance of CARM versus medical judgement with/without imputation in predicting the risk in-hospital mortality at NEWS thresholds (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)
| NEWS | Predicted risk at NEWS thresholds | N | Medical judgement | CARM | ||||||||||||||
| Sensitivity% | Specificity% | PPV | NPV | LR+ | LR− | GM% | N | Sensitivity% | Specificity% | PPV | NPV | LR+ | LR− | GM% | ||||
| Complete blood test results n=300 | 1 | 0.03 | 275 | 98.0 (92.8 to 99.8) | 11.4 (7.4 to 16.6) | 34.9 (29.3 to 40.9) | 92.0 (74 to 99) | 1.1 (1.0 to 1.2) | 0.2 (0.0 to 0.7) | 33.4 | 239 | 90.8 (83.3 to 95.7) | 25.7 (19.9 to 32.3) | 37.2 (31.1 to 43.7) | 85.2 (73.8 to 93) | 1.2 (1.1 to 1.4) | 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) | 48.4 |
| 2 | 0.04 | 273 | 98.0 (92.8 to 99.8) | 12.4 (8.2 to 17.7) | 35.2 (29.5 to 41.1) | 92.6 (75.7 to 99.1) | 1.1 (1.1 to 1.2) | 0.2 (0.0 to 0.7) | 34.8 | 205 | 84.7 (76 to 91.2) | 39.6 (32.8 to 46.7) | 40.5 (33.7 to 47.5) | 84.2 (75.3 to 90.9) | 1.4 (1.2 to 1.6) | 0.4 (0.2 to 0.6) | 57.9 | |
| 3 | 0.05 | 190 | 84.7 (76 to 91.2) | 47.0 (40.0 to 54.2) | 43.7 (36.5 to 51.1) | 86.4 (78.5 to 92.2) | 1.6 (1.4 to 1.9) | 0.3 (0.2 to 0.5) | 63.1 | 168 | 79.6 (70.3 to 87.1) | 55.4 (48.3 to 62.4) | 46.4 (38.7 to 54.3) | 84.8 (77.6 to 90.5) | 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1) | 0.4 (0.2 to 0.6) | 66.4 | |
| 4 | 0.08 | 186 | 83.7 (74.8 to 90.4) | 48.5 (41.4 to 55.6) | 44.1 (36.8 to 51.5) | 86.0 (78.2 to 91.8) | 1.6 (1.4 to 1.9) | 0.3 (0.2 to 0.5) | 63.7 | 126 | 65.3 (55.0 to 74.6) | 69.3 (62.4 to 75.6) | 50.8 (41.7 to 59.8) | 80.5 (73.8 to 86.1) | 2.1 (1.7 to 2.7) | 0.5 (0.4 to 0.7) | 67.3 | |
| 5 | 0.10 | 118 | 59.2 (48.8 to 69.0) | 70.3 (63.5 to 76.5) | 49.2 (39.8 to 58.5) | 78.0 (71.3 to 83.8) | 2.0 (1.5 to 2.6) | 0.6 (0.5 to 0.7) | 64.5 | 92 | 58.2 (47.8 to 68.1) | 82.7 (76.7 to 87.6) | 62.0 (51.2 to 71.9) | 80.3 (74.2 to 85.5) | 3.4 (2.4 to 4.7) | 0.5 (0.4 to 0.6) | 69.3 | |
| At least one blood test result is imputed n=109 | 1 | 0.03 | 89 | 93.8 (79.2 to 99.2) | 23.4 (14.5 to 34.4) | 33.7 (24.0 to 44.5) | 90.0 (68.3 to 98.8) | 1.2 (1.1 to 1.4) | 0.3 (0.1 to 1.1) | 46.8 | 83 | 90.6 (75.0 to 98.0) | 29.9 (20.0 to 41.4) | 34.9 (24.8 to 46.2) | 88.5 (69.8 to 97.6) | 1.3 (1.1 to 1.6) | 0.3 (0.1 to 1.0) | 52.0 |
| 2 | 0.04 | 88 | 93.8 (79.2 to 99.2) | 24.7 (15.6 to 35.8) | 34.1 (24.3 to 45) | 90.5 (69.6 to 98.8) | 1.2 (1.1 to 1.5) | 0.3 (0.1 to 1.0) | 48.1 | 63 | 75.0 (56.6 to 88.5) | 49.4 (37.8 to 61.0) | 38.1 (26.1 to 51.2) | 82.6 (68.6 to 92.2) | 1.5 (1.1 to 2.0) | 0.5 (0.3 to 1.0) | 60.8 | |
| 3 | 0.05 | 59 | 68.8 (50.0 to 83.9) | 51.9 (40.3 to 63.5) | 37.3 (25.0 to 50.9) | 80.0 (66.3 to 90.0) | 1.4 (1.0 to 2.0) | 0.6 (0.3 to 1.0) | 59.8 | 47 | 62.5 (43.7 to 78.9) | 64.9 (53.2 to 75.5) | 42.6 (28.3 to 57.8) | 80.6 (68.6 to 89.6) | 1.8 (1.2 to 2.7) | 0.6 (0.4 to 0.9) | 63.7 | |
| 4 | 0.08 | 59 | 68.8 (50.0 to 83.9) | 51.9 (40.3 to 63.5) | 37.3 (25.0 to 50.9) | 80.0 (66.3 to 90.0) | 1.4 (1.0 to 2.0) | 0.6 (0.3 to 1.0) | 59.8 | 30 | 40.6 (23.7 to 59.4) | 77.9 (67.0 to 86.6) | 43.3 (25.5 to 62.6) | 75.9 (65 to 84.9) | 1.8 (1.0 to 3.3) | 0.8 (0.6 to 1.0) | 56.3 | |
| 5 | 0.10 | 30 | 50.0 (31.9 to 68.1) | 81.8 (71.4 to 89.7) | 53.3 (34.3 to 71.7) | 79.7 (69.2 to 88.0) | 2.8 (1.5 to 4.9) | 0.6 (0.4 to 0.9) | 64.0 | 16 | 25.0 (11.5 to 43.4) | 89.6 (80.6 to 95.4) | 50.0 (24.7 to 75.3) | 74.2 (64.1 to 82.7) | 2.4 (1.0 to 5.9) | 0.8 (0.7 to 1.0) | 47.3 | |
CARM, computer-aided risk of mortality; GM, geometric mean; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; NEWS, National Early Warning Score; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.