Table 4

Performance of CARM versus medical judgement with/without imputation in predicting the risk in-hospital mortality at NEWS thresholds (1, 2, 3, 4 and 5)

NEWSPredicted risk at NEWS thresholdsNMedical judgementCARM
Sensitivity%Specificity%PPVNPVLR+LR−GM%NSensitivity%Specificity%PPVNPVLR+LR−GM%
Complete blood test results n=30010.0327598.0 (92.8 to 99.8)11.4 (7.4 to 16.6)34.9 (29.3 to 40.9)92.0 (74 to 99)1.1 (1.0 to 1.2)0.2 (0.0 to 0.7)33.423990.8 (83.3 to 95.7)25.7 (19.9 to 32.3)37.2 (31.1 to 43.7)85.2 (73.8 to 93)1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)0.4 (0.2 to 0.7)48.4
20.0427398.0 (92.8 to 99.8)12.4 (8.2 to 17.7)35.2 (29.5 to 41.1)92.6 (75.7 to 99.1)1.1 (1.1 to 1.2)0.2 (0.0 to 0.7)34.820584.7 (76 to 91.2)39.6 (32.8 to 46.7)40.5 (33.7 to 47.5)84.2 (75.3 to 90.9)1.4 (1.2 to 1.6)0.4 (0.2 to 0.6)57.9
30.0519084.7 (76 to 91.2)47.0 (40.0 to 54.2)43.7 (36.5 to 51.1)86.4 (78.5 to 92.2)1.6 (1.4 to 1.9)0.3 (0.2 to 0.5)63.116879.6 (70.3 to 87.1)55.4 (48.3 to 62.4)46.4 (38.7 to 54.3)84.8 (77.6 to 90.5)1.8 (1.5 to 2.1)0.4 (0.2 to 0.6)66.4
40.0818683.7 (74.8 to 90.4)48.5 (41.4 to 55.6)44.1 (36.8 to 51.5)86.0 (78.2 to 91.8)1.6 (1.4 to 1.9)0.3 (0.2 to 0.5)63.712665.3 (55.0 to 74.6)69.3 (62.4 to 75.6)50.8 (41.7 to 59.8)80.5 (73.8 to 86.1)2.1 (1.7 to 2.7)0.5 (0.4 to 0.7)67.3
50.1011859.2 (48.8 to 69.0)70.3 (63.5 to 76.5)49.2 (39.8 to 58.5)78.0 (71.3 to 83.8)2.0 (1.5 to 2.6)0.6 (0.5 to 0.7)64.59258.2 (47.8 to 68.1)82.7 (76.7 to 87.6)62.0 (51.2 to 71.9)80.3 (74.2 to 85.5)3.4 (2.4 to 4.7)0.5 (0.4 to 0.6)69.3
At least one blood test result is imputed n=10910.038993.8 (79.2 to 99.2)23.4 (14.5 to 34.4)33.7 (24.0 to 44.5)90.0 (68.3 to 98.8)1.2 (1.1 to 1.4)0.3 (0.1 to 1.1)46.88390.6 (75.0 to 98.0)29.9 (20.0 to 41.4)34.9 (24.8 to 46.2)88.5 (69.8 to 97.6)1.3 (1.1 to 1.6)0.3 (0.1 to 1.0)52.0
20.048893.8 (79.2 to 99.2)24.7 (15.6 to 35.8)34.1 (24.3 to 45)90.5 (69.6 to 98.8)1.2 (1.1 to 1.5)0.3 (0.1 to 1.0)48.16375.0 (56.6 to 88.5)49.4 (37.8 to 61.0)38.1 (26.1 to 51.2)82.6 (68.6 to 92.2)1.5 (1.1 to 2.0)0.5 (0.3 to 1.0)60.8
30.055968.8 (50.0 to 83.9)51.9 (40.3 to 63.5)37.3 (25.0 to 50.9)80.0 (66.3 to 90.0)1.4 (1.0 to 2.0)0.6 (0.3 to 1.0)59.84762.5 (43.7 to 78.9)64.9 (53.2 to 75.5)42.6 (28.3 to 57.8)80.6 (68.6 to 89.6)1.8 (1.2 to 2.7)0.6 (0.4 to 0.9)63.7
40.085968.8 (50.0 to 83.9)51.9 (40.3 to 63.5)37.3 (25.0 to 50.9)80.0 (66.3 to 90.0)1.4 (1.0 to 2.0)0.6 (0.3 to 1.0)59.83040.6 (23.7 to 59.4)77.9 (67.0 to 86.6)43.3 (25.5 to 62.6)75.9 (65 to 84.9)1.8 (1.0 to 3.3)0.8 (0.6 to 1.0)56.3
50.103050.0 (31.9 to 68.1)81.8 (71.4 to 89.7)53.3 (34.3 to 71.7)79.7 (69.2 to 88.0)2.8 (1.5 to 4.9)0.6 (0.4 to 0.9)64.01625.0 (11.5 to 43.4)89.6 (80.6 to 95.4)50.0 (24.7 to 75.3)74.2 (64.1 to 82.7)2.4 (1.0 to 5.9)0.8 (0.7 to 1.0)47.3
  • CARM, computer-aided risk of mortality; GM, geometric mean; LR+, positive likelihood ratio; LR−, negative likelihood ratio; NEWS, National Early Warning Score; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.