Table 3

Prognostic factors of mortality in older patients with acute emergency department (ED) contact

%, total (n)0–30 days0–360 days
%, (n)Crude HR
(95% CI)
P valueAdjusted HR
(95% CI)*
P value%, (n)Crude HR
(95% CI)
P valueAdjusted HR
(95% CI)*
P value
Gender
 Female55.4 (1949) 5.0 (98)1 (ref)1 20.8 (406)11
 Male44.6 (1570) 4.7 (74) 0.93 (0.69 to 1.26)0.659 1.19 (0.85 to 1.66)0.322 20.3 (318) 0.97 (0.84 to 1.12)0.666 1.20 (1.02 to 1.41) 0.031
Age 1.06 (1.04 to 1.08) <0.001 1.03 (1.01 to 1.05) 0.004 1.06 (1.05 to 1.07) <0.001 1.04 (1.03 to 1.05) <0.001
Charlson Comorbidity Index
 028.8 (1015) 3.6 (36)11 12.4 (126)11
 1–242.2 (1484) 4.3 (64) 1.22 (0.81 to 1.84)0.334 1.02 (0.65 to 1.57)0.947 20.2 (300) 1.70 (1.38 to 2.09) <0.001 1.37 (1.10 to 1.71) 0.005
 ≥329.0 (1020) 7.1 (72) 2.02 (1.35 to 3.01) 0.001 1.44 (0.92 to 2.26)0.108 29.2 (298) 2.60 (2.11 to 3.20) <0.001 1.82 (1.46 to 2.28) <0.001
Living status
 Not alone42.4 (1474) 3.6 (53)11 16.6 (244)11
 Alone57.6 (2002) 5.5 (111) 1.56 (1.12 to 2.16) 0.008 0.97 (0.66 to 1.41)0.865 22.5 (450) 1.40 (1.20 to 1.63) <0.001 0.86 (0.72 to 1.03)0.104
Urgency
 Less urgent62.3 (2161) 4.9 (105)11 20.7 (448)11
 Urgent37.7 (1305) 4.9 (64) 1.01 (0.74 to 1.38)0.927 1.10 (0.80 to 1.51)0.563 20.6 (269) 0.99 (0.85 to 1.15)0.910 1.04 (0.89 to 1.21)0.642
No of medications
 <536.2 (1275) 4.2 (53)11 16.9 (215)11
 ≥563.8 (2244) 5.3 (119) 1.28 (0.92 to 1.77)0.137 0.97 (0.68 to 1.37)0.847 22.7 (509) 1.40 (1.19 to 1.64) <0.001 1.05 (0.89 to 1.25)0.563
Length of stay
 ED visit33.6 (1184) 2.3 (27)11 13.5 (160)11
 <48 hours13.0 (456) 3.5 (16) 1.55 (0.83 to 2.92)0.165 1.56 (0.84 to 2.91)0.164 12.9 (59) 0.97 (0.72 to 1.31)0.834 0.95 (0.70 to 1.29)0.762
 ≥48 hours53.4 (1879) 6.9 (129) 3.09 (2.04 to 4.68) <0.001 2.51 (1.63 to 3.84) <0.001 26.9 (505) 2.18 (1.83 to 2.61) <0.001 1.82 (1.52 to 2.19) <0.001
Municipality healthcare
 Independent50.3 (1772) 2.2 (39)11 10.1 (178)11
 Dependent33.9 (1192) 6.1 (73) 2.84 (1.93 to 4.20) <0.001 2.06 (1.30 to 3.26) 0.002 28.3 (337) 3.14 (2.62 to 3.76) <0.001 2.07 (1.68 to 2.56) <0.001
 In residential care15.8 (555) 10.8 (60) 5.13 (3.43 to 8.16) <0.001 3.94 (2.41 to 6.45) <0.001 37.7 (209) 4.54 (3.71 to 5.53) <0.001 3.03 (2.39 to 3.85) <0.001
  • Proportions, HRs, and p-values < 0.05 presented as bold values.

  • *Cox proportional hazard model adjusted for gender, age as continuous variable, Charlson Comorbidity Index (0, 1–2, ≥3), number of medications (<5, ≥5), length of stay, living alone, urgency level (urgent, less urgent) and municipality healthcare the month before index contact as categorical variable.