Table 1

Key population baseline epidemiological and economic outcomes for seasonal epidemics and severe pandemics in each of the scenarios considered

Baseline outcomes in the total populationSeasonal influenzaPandemic influenza severe (moderate; very severe)*
R_eff† R_0
1.21.31.41.41.61.8
Low symptomatic proportions
 Clinical attack rate, AR (%)3.25.37.09.413.015.6
 Median number of GP visits per 100 000 population47878910531866 (1398; 2334)2587 (1939; 3236)3115 (2334; 3896)
 Median number of hospitalisations (per 100 000 population)233851184 (67; 325)255 (93; 450)307 (112; 541)
 Median number of deaths (per 100 000 population)581121 (15; 65)30 (20; 90)35 (24; 109)
 Mean total costs (million US$)94155205473 (401; 569)656 (557; 789)790 (670; 950)
 Productivity losses (% of total costs)83838375 (88; 62)75 (88; 62)75 (88; 62)
High symptomatic proportions
 Clinical attack rate, AR (%)9.013.316.922.329.534.8
 Median number of GP visits per 100 000 population1342198325213329 (4442; 5557)5892 (4415; 7370)6946 (5205; 8688)
 Median number of hospitalisations (per 100 000 population)6596122438 (160; 772)581 (212; 1024)685 (251; 1207)
 Median number of deaths (per 100 000 population)14202650 (34; 155)66 (44; 1024)78 (53; 243)
 Mean total costs (million US$)2573784791134 (963; 1363)1503 (1276; 1807)1770 (1503; 2128)
 Productivity losses (% of total costs)82828275 (88; 62)75 (88; 62)75 (88; 62)
  • *Moderate (severe; very severe) refers to illness severity in the influenza scenario.

  • †Effective reproductive number.

  • ‡Basic reproductive number; cd, 35% of children aged <16 years, and 25% of adults aged 16+ years develop symptoms, e, 65% of children aged <16 years, and 55% of adults aged 16+ years develop symptoms.