Table 2

β coefficients for the number of patients with acute ethanol intoxication from the univariate and multivariate GARCH model

VariableUnivariate GARCH* modelMultivariate GARCH* model
β coefficient95% CIP valueβ coefficient95% CIP value
Earthquake factors
 Incidence of earthquake0.00(−0.12 to 0.12)0.95
 Number of earthquakes a day, times−0.02(−0.06 to 0.03)0.46
 The depth of the epicentre, km0.00(−0.01 to 0.01)0.85
 The highest magnitude in a day0.00(−0.02 to 0.02)0.98
 The highest Shindo in a day0.00(−0.08 to 0.07)0.92
 Daytime earthquake†−0.19(−0.40 to 0.01)0.06−0.18(−0.38 to 0.02)0.07
 Night-time earthquake‡0.12(−0.12 to 0.35)0.34
 Categories of day
  The day before non-working day 0.26 (0.15 to 0.37) <0.01 0.25 (0.15 to 0.36) <0.01
  Non-working day0.08(−0.01 to 0.17)0.050.08(−0.01 to 0.16)0.08
  Summer0.02(−0.09 to 0.13)0.730.02(−0.09 to 0.12)0.78
  Fall0.05(−0.06 to 0.17)0.350.03(−0.76 to 0.14)0.55
  Winter0.10(−0.01 to 0.22)0.07 0.12 (0.02 to 0.23) 0.02
  • Numbers in bold indicate that the p value is less than 0.05.

  • *GARCH, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. The multivariate GARCH model was adjusted for variables found to have a p value of 0.2 or less in a simple GARCH model as well as year-fixed effect and changes in alcohol taxation.

  • †Daytime earthquake means that an earthquake was observed between 09:00 and 17:00.

  • ‡Night-time earthquake means that earthquake was observed between 17:00 and mid-night.