Variable | Male (n=4646) | Female (n=1826) | ||||||
Univariate GARCH* | Multivariate GARCH* | Univariate GARCH* | Multivariate GARCH* | |||||
β coefficient (95% CI†) | P value | β coefficient (95% CI) | P value | β coefficient (95% CI) | P value | β coefficient (95% CI) | P value | |
Earthquake factors | ||||||||
Incidence of earthquake | 0.00 (−0.11 to 0.10) | 0.98 | −0.01 (−0.07 to 0.05) | 0.86 | ||||
Number of earthquakes per day, times | −0.01 (−0.05 to 0.02) | 0.39 | 0.00 (−0.02 to 0.02) | 0.79 | ||||
The depth of the epicentre, km | 0.00 (−0.00 to 0.00) | 0.98 | 0.00 (−0.01 to 0.01) | 0.78 | ||||
The highest magnitude in a day | 0.00 (−0.02 to 0.02) | 0.98 | 0.00 (−0.01 to 0.01) | 0.98 | ||||
The highest Shindo in a day | −0.01 (−0.07 to 0.05) | 0.81 | 0.00 (−0.03 to 0.04) | 0.94 | ||||
Daytime earthquake† |
−0.19
(−0.36 to −0.02) | 0.02 |
−0.19
(−0.36 to −0.02) | 0.03 | 0.00 (−0.09 to 0.10) | 0.95 | 0.00 (−0.10 to 0.10) | 0.99 |
Night-time earthquake‡ | 0.05 (−0.14 to 0.25) | 0.59 | 0.05 (−0.07 to 0.16) | 0.41 | ||||
Date | ||||||||
Categories of day | ||||||||
Weekday | Reference | Reference | ||||||
The day before a non-working day |
0.19
(0.10 to 0.28) | <0.01 |
0.19
(0.10 to 0.28) | <0.01 |
0.08
(0.03 to 0.13) | <0.01 |
0.08
(0.03 to 0.13) | <0.01 |
Non-working day | 0.04 (−0.04 to 0.11) | 0.34 | 0.04 (−0.04 to 0.11) | 0.35 |
0.05
(0.01 to 0.09) | 0.02 |
0.05
(0.01 to 0.09) | 0.02 |
Season | ||||||||
Spring | Reference | Reference | ||||||
Summer | −0.00 (−0.10 to 0.09) | 0.93 | −0.00 (−0.10 to 0.09) | 0.93 | 0.02 (−0.03 to 0.07) | 0.42 | 0.02 (−0.03 to 0.08) | 0.37 |
Fall | 0.02 (−0.07 to 0.12) | 0.63 | 0.02 (−0.08 to 0.11) | 0.74 | 0.02 (−0.04 to 0.07) | 0.55 | 0.01 (−0.04 to 0.07) | 0.58 |
Winter |
0.12
(0.02 to 0.21) | 0.01 |
0.12
(0.02 to 0.21) | 0.01 | −0.02 (−0.07 to 0.03) | 0.43 | −0.02 (−0.07 to 0.03) | 0.42 |
Numbers in bold indicate that the p value is less than 0.05.
*GARCH, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. The multivariate GARCH model was adjusted for variables found to have p value of 0.2 or less in a simple GARCH model as well as year-fixed effect and changes in alcohol taxation.
†Daytime earthquake means that earthquake was observed between 09:00 and 17:00.
‡Night-time earthquake means that earthquake was observed between 17:00 and mid-night.