Table 4

β coefficients for the number of patients with acute ethanol intoxication from univariate and multivariate GARCH model by age

Variable50 years or older (n=2202)Younger than 50 years (n=4270)
Univariate GARCH*Multivariate GARCH*Univariate GARCH*Multivariate GARCH*
β coefficient
(95% CI)
P valueβ coefficient
(95% CI)
P valueβ coefficient
(95% CI)
P valueβ coefficient
(95% CI)
P value
Earthquake factors
Incidence of earthquake−0.03
(−0.10 to 0.04)
0.370.03
(−0.07 to 0.13)
0.54
Number of earthquakes per day, times−0.01
(−0.03 to 0.01)
0.350.00
(−0.04 to 0.03)
0.82
The depth of the epicentre, km0.00
(−0.00 to 0.00)
0.670.00
(−0.01 to 0.01)
0.98
The highest magnitude in a day−0.01
(−0.02 to 0.01)
0.390.01
(−0.01 to 0.03)
0.54
The highest Shindo in a day−0.02
(−0.06 to 0.02)
0.350.02
(−0.04 to 0.08)
0.58
Daytime earthquake†−0.09
(−0.20 to 0.01)
0.09−0.09
(−0.19 to 0.02)
0.11−0.07
(−0.23 to 0.10)
0.39−0.08
(−0.24 to 0.09)
0.36
Night-time earthquake‡0.03
(−0.09 to 0.15)
0.650.09
(−0.09 to 0.28)
0.32
Date
 Categories of day
  WeekdayReferenceReference
  The day before the non-working day 0.06
(0.01 to 0.12)
0.02 0.06
(0.01 to 0.12)
0.03 0.19
(0.11 to 0.28)
<0.01 0.19
(0.11 to 0.28)
<0.01
  Non-working day−0.04
(−0.08 to 0.01)
0.09−0.04
(−0.09 to 0.01)
0.08 0.11
(0.04 to 0.18)
<0.01 0.11
(0.05 to 0.18)
<0.01
 Season
  SpringReferenceReference
  Summer−0.03
(−0.09 to 0.02)
0.26−0.03
(−0.09 to 0.02)
0230.06
(−0.03 to 0.14)
0.200.06
(−0.03 to 0.15)
0.17
  Fall0.01
(−0.05 to 0.07)
0.730.01
(−0.05 to 0.06)
0.820.04
(−0.05 to 0.12)
0.400.03
(−0.05 to 0.12)
0.45
  Winter 0.10
(0.04 to 0.15)
<0.01 0.10
(0.04 to 0.15)
<0.01 0.01
(−0.08 to 0.10)
0.810.01
(−0.08 to 0.79)
0.83
  • Numbers in bold indicate that the p value is less than 0.05.

  • *GARCH, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity.

  • †Daytime earthquake means that the earthquake was observed between 09:00 and 17:00.

  • ‡Night-time earthquake means that the earthquake was observed between 17:00 and mid-night.