Table 3

Comparison of the actual and predicted incidence of intussusception with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (1,0,1 1,1,1)12 model in 2017

MonthActual incidence
(1/100000 population)
Predicted incidence
(1/100000 population)
95% CI of forecast (LCL)95% CI of forecast
(UCL)
January7.876.944.519.36
February6.408.275.2811.26
March5.098.905.2912.21
April6.798.965.4612.46
May7.449.475.8513.10
June7.768.354.6412.05
July8.098.364.6112.12
August7.378.795.0012.57
September7.237.733.9211.54
October6.056.833.0110.65
November5.317.273.4411.10
December5.566.762.9310.59
  • LCL, low control limit; UCL upper control limit.