Table 4

Estimated number of cumulative CVD deaths and 95% UI for 2021–2030 associated with each modelled Brexit scenario

ScenarioCoronary heart diseaseStrokeCardiovascular disease
Scenario 11360 (730 to 2670)2740 (1400 to 5430)4110 (2130 to 8100)
Scenario 21930 (980 to 3990)3810 (1880 to 7910)5740 (2860 to 11 910)
Scenario 34110 (2330 to 7660)8290 (4360 to 15 730)12 400 (6690 to 23 390)
Scenario 41360 (790 to 2300)2810 (1540 to 5080)4160 (2330 to 7380)
  • Scenario 1: free trading agreement with the EU and third countries; scenario 2: free trading agreement with the EU; scenario 3: no-deal Brexit; Scenario 4: liberalised trade regime.

  • CVD, cardiovascular disease; UI, uncertainty interval.