Table 3

Estimated relative change in intake of F&V under each modelled Brexit scenario

ScenarioChange in intake (95% UI)
FruitsVegetables
Scenario 1−4.4% (−5.2% to −3.8%)−2.5% (−3.1% to −1.9%)
Scenario 2−7.0% (−8.4% to −5.9%)−2.7% (−3.3% to −2.2%)
Scenario 3−11.4% (−14.2% to −9.5%)−9.1% (−11.0% to −7.8%)
Scenario 4−2.8% (−3.3% to −2.3%)−4.0% (−4.6% to −3.4%)
  • Scenario 1: free trading agreement with the EU and third countries; scenario 2: free trading agreement with the EU; scenario 3: no-deal Brexit; scenario 4: liberalised trade regime.

  • F&V, fruits and vegetables; UI, uncertainty interval.