Table 1

Model inputs to characterise a hypothetical population that contains an undervaccinated subpopulation

Model inputValue(s)*Source/notes
Total population size500 000; 1 million; 5 millionNo effect on DEB model behaviour, but required for stochastic analysis of detections
Time until vaccination starts, yearsAssumption to characterise hard-to-reach subpopulation within well-vaccinated general population
 General population30
 Undervaccinated subpopulation40
Initial age distributionEquilibrium age distribution38
 0–2 months0.01
 3–59 months0.15
 5–14 years0.25
 ≥15 years0.59
Birth rate, births/person/year0.02 38
Death rate, deaths/person/year0.02 38
Basic reproduction number (R0)10 38
Proportion of transmissions via oropharyngeal route0.3 38
Proportion of contacts reserved for individuals within the same mixing age group0.4Same value as used in Ref. 38 (not explicitly listed)
Average per-dose take rate for serotype 1 OPV0.6Increased from 0.5 to maintain similar coverage thresholds with different run-up38
Routine immunisation coverageRepresents coverage with exactly 3 OPV doses; general population based on Ref. 38, undervaccinated varied around threshold to eradicate, which equals 0.82 for the bolded values in the middle column
 General population0.95
 Undervaccinated subpopulation0.75; 0.82; 0.85; 0.90; 0.95†
Proportion of contacts with undervaccinated subpopulation (pwithin)0.8; 0.95; 1.00Selected values from  Ref. 38
Relative size of the undervaccinated subpopulation compared with total population1/20; 1/10; 1/5Selected values from Ref. 38
Paralysis-to-infection ratio1/200Average for serotype 1 wild poliovirus2 14
Detection probability per polio caseAssumption to characterise hard-to-reach subpopulation within general population with high acute flaccid paralysis surveillance quality
 General population0.95
 Undervaccinated subpopulations0; 0.1; 0.2; 0.3; 0.4; 0.5; 0.6; 0.7; 0.8; 0.9; 0.95†
  • *Values shown in bold represent values that we held fixed when varying other values in sensitivity analyses.

  • †All values considered jointly in all sensitivity analysis (hence no single value bolded).

  • DEB, differential-equation based; OPV, oral poliovirus vaccine.