Table 3

Impact of the SIGN guidelines and introduction of 4-hour ED target on number of head injury admissions per 100 000 Scottish population by age group

Age bandWinter effectInitial trendFirst SIGN guideline4-hour target
introduced
Second SIGN guidelineDurbin-Watson
statistic
All ages−3.00 (95% CI−3.78 to −2.30), p<0.010.04 (95% CI −0.08 to 0.15), p=0.53Change level:
2.45 (95% CI 0.09 to 4.83), p=0.04
Change level:
−2.89 (95% CI −4.84 to −0.95), p<0.01
Change level:
−0.84 (95% CI −2.50 to 0.78), p=0.31
Untransformed 1.68
Prais-Winsten 2.02
Change trend:
−0.14 (95% CI −0.27 to −0.01), p=0.03
Change trend:
0.13 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.20), p<0.01
Change trend:
−0.09 (95% CI −0.13 to −0.05), p<0.01
0–15−9.19 (95% CI −10.81 to −7.57), p<0.01−0.21 (95% CI −0.53 to 0.12), p=0.22Change level:
6.06 (95% CI −0.49 to 12.62), p=0.07
Change level:
−0.41 (95% CI −5.98 to 5.17), p=0.89
Change level:
−0.54 (95% CI −5.31 to 4.22), p=0.82
Untransformed 1.34
Prais-Winsten 1.87
Change trend:
−0.10 (95% CI −0.29 to 0.49), p=0.61
Change trend:
−0.05 (95% CI −0.27 to 0.16), p=0.63
Change trend:
0.06 (95% CI −0.07 to 0.18), p=0.37
16–64−1.75 (95% CI−2.48 to −1.01), p<0.010.06 (95% CI −0.07 to 0.19), p=0.39Change level:
2.12 (95% CI −0.54 to 4.79), p=0.12
Change level:
−3.54 (95% CI −5.76 to −1.33), p<0.01
Change level:
−0.87 (95% CI −2.74 to 0.99), p=0.36
Untransformed 1.45
Prais-Winsten 2.10
Change trend:
−0.20 (95% CI −0.35 to −0.05), p<0.01
Change trend:
0.18 (95% CI −0.10 to 0.27), p<0.01
Change trend:
−0.18 (95% CI −0.23 to −0.13), p<0.01
65+1.67 (95% CI 0.32 to 3.02), p=0.020.17 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.39), p=0.11Change level:
2.28 (95% CI −2.13 to 6.86), p=0.30
Change level:
−2.70 (95% CI −6.39 to 0.99), p=0.15
Change level:
0.85 (95% CI −2.22 to 3.93), p=0.59
Untransformed 1.70
Prais-Winsten 2.00
Change trend:
−0.16 (95% CI −0.40 to 0.09), p=0.21
Change trend:
0.15 (95% CI 0.01 to 0.28), p=0.03
Change trend:
0.05 (95% CI −0.03 to 0.12), p=0.23
  • ED, emergency department; SIGN, Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network; TBI, traumatic brain injury.