Table 2

Expert group judgement policy

Prognostic factorsRegression coefficient*95% CIP valuesStandardised coefficient
PPS†6.105.50 to 6.71<0.0010.48
Cheyne-Stokes Breathing‡15.3913.07 to 17.71<0.0010.30
Decline in condition‡11.519.18 to 13.84<0.0010.23
Agitation or sedation (RASS)†4.313.41 to 5.20<0.0010.23
Noisy respiratory secretions‡5.913.58 to 8.24<0.0010.12
Peripheral cyanosis‡5.403.09 to 7.71<0.0010.11
Urinary output‡0.39−1.94 to 2.730.2200.01
  • One of the experts in this phase of the study had also participated in the task of identifying which seven (out of a possible nine) prognostic factors to include in the judgement analysis task. As this individual was only one of 12 experts involved in deciding which factors to include, we did not consider that this was likely to have biased the results of the study. Nevertheless, a sensitivity analysis was undertaken in which the above analysis was repeated after excluding this participant, and this led to a very similar pattern of results (see online supplementary file 3).

  • *Coefficient: the change in the percentage probability of death given the presence of the prognostic factor (if binary) or for a one unit increase in the prognostic factor (if continuous)

  • †Continuous variables, coded as integers: PPS 1 (≥70%) up to 7 (10%); RASS 0 (no agitation/sedation) up to 5 (heavily sedated/agitated).

  • ‡Binary variables, coded as 0 (absent), 1 (present).

  • PPS, Palliative Performance Score; RASS, Richmond Agitation and Sedation Scale.