Table 3

Factors associated with job start for ESA clients

VariableUnadjusted IRR (95% CI)*P valuesAdjusted IRR (95% CI)†P values
Individual factors
Gender0.6320.141
 Male11
 Female1.03 (0.90 to 1.18)1.11 (0.95 to 1.29)
Length of prior unemployment<0.001<0.001
 0–6 months11
 7–12 months0.67 (0.50 to 0.90)0.71 (0.53 to 0.96)
 1–2 years0.49 (0.38 to 0.64)0.57 (0.44 to 0.75)
 3–5 years0.27 (0.20 to 0.35)0.39 (0.29 to 0.51)
 6–10 years0.16 (0.12 to 0.21)0.25 (0.18 to 0.33)
 11+ years0.10 (0.07 to 0.13)0.18 (0.13 to 0.25)
Highest qualification<0.0010.312
 Degree or higher11
 A levels/NVQ level 3 and equivalent0.78 (0.58 to 1.05)1.16 (0.85 to 1.58)
 Five or more GCSEs grades A*–C and equivalent0.68 (0.51 to 0.92)1.12 (0.82 to 1.54)
 Under 5 GCSEs A*–C and equivalent0.44 (0.33 to 0.59)0.86 (0.63 to 1.17)
 Below GSCE level0.36 (0.27 to 0.47)0.85 (0.64 to 1.14)
Ethnicity0.629<0.05
 White British11
 Other1.07 (0.81 to 1.41)0.71 (0.53 to 0.95)
Have health concerns which believe will affect ability to work<0.000<0.000
 No11
 Yes0.30 (0.25 to 0.37)0.68 (0.55 to 0.84) <0.001
Number of health conditions disclosed<0.000<0.000
 0+1 (note 121 clients disclosed 0 HCs)11
 20.68 (0.58 to 0.79)0.84 (0.72 to 0.99)
 30.44 (0.36 to 0.54)0.67 (0.54 to 0.83)
 40.30 (0.22 to 0.42)0.49 (0.35 to 0.68)
 5 or more0.28 (0.19 to 0.42)0.52 (0.35 to 0.78)
Client perception of job start—When do you see yourself starting work?<0.000<0.000
 Within 1 month11
 2–3 months0.81 (0.60 to 1.11)0.97 (0.71 to 1.34)
 4–6 months0.51 (0.37 to 0.71)0.69 (0.49 to 0.97)
 >6 months0.11 (0.08 to 0.15)0.24 (0.17 to 0.34)
Do not know0.17 (0.13 to 0.22)0.33 (0.24 to 0.45)
Personal circumstances
Caring responsibility for anyone other than children0.3130.575
 No11
 Yes0.86 (0.63 to 1.16)0.89 (0.65 to 1.20)
Housing status<0.0010.066
 Homeowner11
 Living with family0.51 (0.38 to 0.67)0.68 (0.50 to 0.90)
 Rented private0.54 (0.41 to 0.71)0.71 (0.53 to 0.93)
 Rented social0.45 (0.36 to 0.56)0.73 (0.58 to 0.93)
 Insecure0.38 (0.25 to 0.58)0.61 (0.40 to 0.93)
Parental status0.351<0.01
 No children11
 Children, two parent family1.61 (1.27 to 2.04)1.41 (1.10 to 1.80)
 Children, shared custody/not living with you1.06 (0.87 to 1.29)1.18 (0.97 to 1.45)
 Children, lone parent family1.12 (0.90 to 1.39)1.25 (0.99 to 1.56)
 Children, adults living at home/adults not living at home1.13 (0.92 to 1.40)1.26 (1.02 to 1.57)
External factors
SIMD quintiles<0.0010.331
 1 (most deprived)11
 21.28 (1.09 to 1.51)1.09 (0.92 to 1.29)
 31.42 (1.17 to 1.75)0.97 (0.78 to 1.19)
 41.58 (1.20 to 2.09)1.21 (0.91 to 1.61)
 5 (least deprived)1.86 (1.39 to 2.50)1.17 (0.86 to 1.59)
Sixfold urban rural classification<0.010.163
 1 Large urban areas11
 2 Other urban areas1.22 (1.05 to 1.42)1.04 (0.89 to 1.21)
 3 Accessible small towns1.39 (1.06 to 1.83)1.15 (0.87 to 1.53)
 4 Remote small towns1.64 (1.05 to 2.56)1.56 (0.98 to 2.46)
 5 Accessible rural1.51 (1.08 to 2.10)1.08 (0.77 to 1.51)
 6 Remote rural1.06 (0.57 to 1.98)0.74 (0.39 to 1.41)
  • Linear trends are shown for length of unemployment, highest qualification, number of health conditions and SIMD quintiles. All other variables show overall trend.

  • *Model contained age and gender.

  • †Model adjusted for age, gender, length of unemployment, highest qualification, ethnicity, health concerns, number of health conditions, client perception of job start, caring responsibility, housing status, parental status, SIMD quintiles and sixfold urban rural classification.

  • ESA, Employment and Support Allowance; GCSE, General Certificate of Secondary Education; HC, health conditions; IRR, incident rate ratios; SIMD, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.