Table 3

Proportional odds model for selecting trainees into their preferred foundation school

Variable/parameterModel 1 (R2=0.084)Model 2 (R2=0.311)Model 3 (R2=0.37)
Estimate(β)Sig95% CI for exp (coefficient)Estimate(β)Sig95% CI for exp (coefficient)Estimate(β)Sig95% CI for exp (coefficient)
Lower boundUpper boundLower boundUpper boundLower boundUpper bound
Threshold
 Outside top three−2.579<0.001−2.915−2.243−5.304<0.001−5.663−4.945−4.946<0.001−5.349−4.543
 Second or third choice−1.565<0.001−1.895−1.235−4.086<0.001−4.433−3.739−3.651<0.001−4.042−3.259
 First choiceRefRef
 UKFP selection score−0.430<0.001−0.455−0.405−0.551<0.001−0.585−0.517
Gender
 FemaleRefRef
 Male−0.222<0.001−0.346−0.098−0.020.971−0.1210.116−0.0360.567−0.1580.086
Highest qualification on entry
 Graduate0.2260.111−0.0520.504−0.0590.651−0.3140.1960.0390.769−0.2230.302
 Non-graduateRefRef
Type of secondary school attended
 State-funded school or collegeRefRef
 Fee-paying school−0.2240.001−0.357−0.091−0.307<0.001−0.435−0.180−0.258<0.001−0.389−0.126
  Income support
  Yes−0.0530.603−0.2530.1470.0250.768−0.1420.1930.0150.865−0.1570.187
  NoRefRef
 Participation of local areas (POLAR 2&3)
 Other neighbourhood−0.274 0.094−0.5940.047−0.495 0.001 −0.786−0.203−0.4130.008−0.717−0.109
  Low participation neighbourhood (POLAR 2&3)RefRef
  Ethnicity
 Asian or Asian British−0.859<0.001−1.005−0.712−0.578<0.001−0.715−0.441−0.410<0.001−0.553−0.267
 Black or black British−1.258<0.001−1.641−0.875−0.755<0.001−1.101−0.409−0.4900.007−0.848−0.132
  Mixed−0.3220.047−0.6390.005−0.0350.818−0.3370.2660.0760.632−0.2340.386
 Other ethnic groups−0.792<0.001−1.160−0.424−0.733<0.001−1.074−0.392−0.5270.003−0.879−0.175
  WhiteRefRef
 (UK) place of medical qualification
  EnglandRefRef
 Northern Ireland0.7700.0000.4301.1112.031<0.0011.5352.5282.537<0.0012.0103.063
 Scotland0.4030.0190.0670.7381.463<0.0011.2191.7061.172<0.0010.8641.481
 Wales1.1230.0000.8431.4040.584<0.0010.2820.8860.1530.353−0.1700.476
Foundation school competition ratio
 Group 1 (least competitive foundation school)0.4400.0040.1370.743
 Comp ratio group 21.526<0.0011.1781.875
 Comp ratio group 32.010<0.0011.6772.343
 Comp ratio group 40.726<0.0010.4061.045
 Comp ratio group 50.3250.056−0.0090.659
 Comp ratio group 60.559<0.0010.2830.836
 Comp ratio 72.113<0.0011.7832.443
 Comp ratio 81.784<0.0011.3732.195
 Comp ratio 91.465<0.0011.1551.776
 Group 10 (most competitive foundation school)Ref
  • Model 1: model without UKFP selection score as the controlling factor.

  • Model 2: after adjusting for UKFP selection score.

  • Model 3: after adjusting for UKFP selection score and foundation school competition ratio.

  • UKFP, UK Foundation Programme.