Results of the FINGER-based predictive models: area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) (CI 95%)
FINGER scores (first year) | High costs (>95th percentile) | Very high costs (>99th percentile) | ≥1 admissions | Prolonged stay (≥12 days) | Very prolonged stay (≥16 days) | Death |
N | 48 734 | 9897 | 33 884 | 10 288 | 7072 | 9392 |
% | 5.01 | 1.02 | 3.48 | 1.06 | 0.73 | 0.96 |
Age and sex | 0.764 (0.762 to 0.766) | 0.794 (0.79 to 0.798) | 0.739 (0.736 to 0.742) | 0.778 (0.773 to 0.782) | 0.776 (0.771 to 0.782) | 0.872 (0.869 to 0.875) |
Diagnoses | 0.772 (0.769 to 0.774) | 0.807 (0.802 to 0.812) | 0.733 (0.73 to 0.737) | 0.785 (0.779 to 0.79) | 0.796 (0.79 to 0.803) | 0.782 (0.777 to 0.788) |
Age & sex+diagnoses | 0.826 (0.824 to 0.828) | 0.866 (0.862 to 0.869) | 0.789 (0.786 to 0.792) | 0.844 (0.84 to 0.848) | 0.851 (0.846 to 0.855) | 0.898 (0.896 to 0.901) |
Age and sex+diagnoses+ resource use in previous year | 0.838 (0.836 to 0.84) | 0.875 (0.872 to 0.879) | 0.802 (0.799 to 0.805) | 0.854 (0.85 to 0.858) | 0.861 (0.857 to 0.866) | 0.896 (0.893 to 0.899) |