Table 1

Probability estimates used in the breast cancer decision tree analysis

Treatment pathOutcomeEstimated probability (95% CI)References
Referral and triple assessment (RTA)Breast cancer diagnosed subsequent to RTA.0.06 (0.05 to 0.08) 6 7 22 23
Stage 1 breast cancer among patients diagnosed with breast cancer following RTA.0.34 (0.26 to 0.42) 15–21
Stage 2 breast cancer among patients diagnosed with breast cancer following RTA.0.46 (0.39 to 0.52) 15–21
Stage 3 breast cancer among patients diagnosed with breast cancer following RTA.0.15 (0.13 to 0.17) 15–21
Stage 4 breast cancer among patients diagnosed with breast cancer following RTA.0.05 (0.04 to 0.06) 15–21
Watchful waiting (WW)Symptoms do not resolve/worsen and patient returns to general practitioner (GP) following a period of WW.0.34 (0.28 to 0.41) 24
Breast cancer diagnosed among patients who returned to GP following WW.0.10 (0.05 to 0.18)Clinical estimate
Stage 1 breast cancer among patients diagnosed with breast cancer following WW.0.27 (0.20 to 0.33) 25–27
Stage 2 breast cancer among patients diagnosed with breast cancer following WW.0.42 (0.36 to 0.47) 25–27
Stage 3 breast cancer among patients diagnosed with breast cancer following WW.0.20 (0.16 to 0.22) 25–27
Stage 4 breast cancer among patients diagnosed with breast cancer following WW.0.11 (0.09 to 0.13) 25–27