Table 3

Sensitivity analysis for breast cancer patient treatment preference study

Health scenario	Values for sensitivity analysis			Number of patients preferring WW to RTA			Swing	Swing²	%Swing²
Health scenario	Lower limit for probability	Reference probability	Upper limit for probability	Lower limit for probability	Reference probability	Upper limit for probability	Swing	Swing²	%Swing²
Diagnosis of breast cancer following RTA	0.05	0.06	0.08	23	25	27	4	16	3.21
Stage 1 breast cancer among patients diagnosed following RTA	0.26	0.34	0.42	26	25	21	−5	25	5.02
Stage 2 breast cancer among patients diagnosed following RTA	0.39	0.46	0.52	26	25	24	−2	4	0.80
Stage 3 breast cancer among patients diagnosed following RTA	0.13	0.15	0.17	25	25	25	0	0	0.00
Stage 4 breast cancer among patients diagnosed following RTA	0.04	0.05	0.06	25	25	25	0	0	0.00
Symptoms do not resolve/worsen and patient returns to GP following period of WW	0.28	0.34	0.41	27	25	24	−3	9	1.81
Diagnosis of breast cancer among patients returning to GP after period of WW	0.05	0.10	0.18	31	25	10	−21	441	88.55
Stage 1 breast cancer among patients diagnosed following WW	0.20	0.26	0.33	25	25	26	1	1	0.20
Stage 2 breast cancer among patients diagnosed following WW	0.36	0.41	0.47	25	25	26	1	1	0.20
Stage 3 breast cancer among patients diagnosed following WW	0.16	0.19	0.22	25	25	25	0	0	0
Stage 4 breast cancer among patients diagnosed following WW	0.09	0.11	0.13	26	25	25	1	−1	0.20

Swing=number of patients preferring WW to RTA (upper limit for probability)−number of patients preferring WW to RTA (lower limit for probability).
Swing²=swing×swing.
%Swing=swing²x100/(total swing² (=498)).
GP, general practitioner; RTA, referral and triple assessment; WW, watchful waiting.