Table 4

Cost–utility analysis (deterministic models)

Scenarios*ControlIntervention∆ in cost∆ in effect†ICERInterpretation‡
Healthcare services payer perspective
 Basecase£68.86£72.92£4.07−0.00005−£81 400Not cost-effective
 Scenario A£56.76£63.93£7.17−0.00010−£71 700Not cost-effective
 Scenario B£69.22£73.37£4.15−0.00012−£33 850Not cost-effective
 Scenario C£53.99£61.90£7.920.00160£4950Cost-effective
 Scenario D£78.36£80.25£1.89−0.0015−£1260Not cost-effective
 Scenario E£57.58£77.18£19.600.0030£6533Cost-effective
 Scenario F£68.86£72.92£4.070.00001£407 000Not cost-effective
 Scenario G£68.86£72.92£4.070.00042£9690Cost-effective
 Scenario H§£68.86£72.92£4.07−0.0038−£1071Not cost-effective
Societal cost perspective
 Scenario I£133.85£126.42−£7.43−0.00005£1 48 600Not cost-effective
 Scenario J£167.36154.72−£12.64−0.00005£2 52 800Not cost-effective
 Scenario K£120.04£117.51−£2.53−0.00010£25 300Not cost-effective
 Scenario L£135.51£127.59−£7.92−0.00005£158 400Not cost-effective
 Scenario M£135.23£127.44−£7.79−0.00005£155 800Not cost-effective
 Scenario N£120.32£120.14−£0.180.00160−£112Cost-effective and cost saving
 Scenario O£142.49£130.59−£11.90−0.00150£7933Not cost-effective
 Scenario P£171.35£62.68−£108.670.0030−£36 223Cost-effective and cost saving
 Scenario Q£133.85£126.42−£7.430.00001−£743 000Cost-effective and cost saving
 Scenario R£133.85£126.42−£7.430.00042−£17 690Cost-effective and cost saving
 Scenario S§£133.85£126.42−£7.43−0.0038£1955Not cost-effective
  • *Full scenario details are presented in the (online supplementary file 1).

  • †Changes in effect have been adjusted for baseline differences for each model and are representative of an annual timeframe (see table 2 for more details).

  • ‡Not cost-effective is suggested if the effect is negative and therefore the ICER is negative; not cost-effective may also be suggested when the ICER is positive due to both a negative cost and effect that is, positioned in the Southwest quadrant of the cost-effectiveness plane, depending on the WTP threshold. As the stated WTP threshold is £20 000 per QALY gain, all positive ICERs due to positive costs and effects that are over £20 000 are also deemed not cost-effective. Also note that CIs were not reported as the analysis are deterministic and non-linear; therefore CIs could not be meaningfully interpreted.

  • §Average unadjusted EQ-VAS scores across baseline to day 7 are presented in the (online supplementary appendix). After adjustments for imbalance at baseline, the incremental effect was negative at −0.174 at day 7. The change in effect presented in the table above has been adjusted to represent an annual timeframe consistent with cost per QALY interpretation.

  • EQ-VAS, EuroQol-Visual Analogue Scale; ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; QALY, quality-adjusted life year; WTP, willingness to pay.