Analysis of scoring systems versus outcome measures in patients presenting to the Emergency Multidisciplinary Unit with suspected infection (n=316)
| Outcome measure test | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) |
| Escalated care | ||||
| SIRS | 50.9 (41.6 to 60.3) | 68.9 (62.6 to 75.3) | 46.7 (37.7 to 55.6) | 72.4 (66.2 to 78.7) |
| NICE HR | 39.5 (30.5 to 48.4) | 62.9 (56.2 to 69.5) | 37.5 (28.8 to 46.2) | 64.8 (58.1 to 71.5) |
| NICE MR and HR | 38.4 (32.4 to 44.4) | 63.6 (52.0 to 75.2) | 80.0 (72.8 to 87.2) | 21.4 (15.7 to 27.2) |
| qSOFA | 37.2 (30.2 to 44.2) | 60.9 (52.6 to 69.2) | 56.7 (47.8 to 65.5) | 41.3 (34.4 to 48.2) |
| NEWS >4 | 48.9 (38.4 to 59.3) | 66.2 (60.1 to 72.4) | 35.8 (27.3 to 44.4) | 77.0 (71.2 to 82.9) |
| 30-Day mortality | ||||
| SIRS | 12.7 (6.5 to 19.0) | 94.7 (91.6 to 97.7) | 56.0 (36.5 to 75.5) | 67.0 (61.6 to 72.4) |
| NICE HR | 12.3 (6.3 to 18.3) | 94.6 (91.4 to 97.7) | 56.0 (36.5 to 75.5) | 65.6 (60.2 to 71.1) |
| NICE MR and HR | 9.6 (5.9 to 13.3) | 98.5 (95.5 to 100.0) | 96.0 (88.3 to 100.0) | 22.3 (17.6 to 27.1) |
| qSOFA | 11.5 (6.9 to 16.1) | 97.0 (94.1 to 99.9) | 84.0 (69.6 to 98.4) | 44.3 (38.6 to 50.0) |
| NEWS >4 | 12.5 (5.6 to 19.4) | 93.9 (90.7 to 97.0) | 44.0 (24.5 to 63.5) | 73.5 (68.5 to 78.6) |
| 30-Day readmission | ||||
| SIRS | 82.7 (75.7 to 89.8) | 34.0 (27.5 to 40.4) | 40.1 (33.7 to 46.5) | 78.7 (70.1 to 87.2) |
| NICE HR | 74.6 (66.6 to 82.6) | 29.7 (23.4 to 36.0) | 37.4 (31.1 to 43.7) | 67.4 (57.7 to 77.2) |
| NICE MR and HR | 74.8 (69.4 to 80.2) | 39.4 (27.6 to 51.2) | 82.4 (77.4 to 87.3) | 29.2 (19.8 to 38.7) |
| qSOFA | 74.9 (68.6 to 81.1) | 32.3 (24.4 to 40.3) | 60.4 (54.0 to 66.7) | 48.3 (37.9 to 58.7) |
| NEWS >4 | 78.4 (69.8 to 87.0) | 30.7 (24.7 to 36.7) | 30.4 (24.4 to 36.4) | 78.7 (70.1 to 87.2) |
| 30-Day composite | ||||
| SIRS | 83.6 (76.7 to 90.5) | 33.5 (27.1 to 39.9) | 40.2 (33.8 to 46.5) | 79.3 (70.8 to 87.8) |
| NICE HR | 75.4 (67.5 to 83.3) | 29.2 (22.9 to 35.5) | 37.6 (31.3 to 43.8) | 67.8 (58.0 to 77.6) |
| NICE MR and HR | 75.6 (70.3 to 80.9) | 39.4 (27.6 to 51.2) | 82.5 (77.6 to 87.5) | 29.9 (20.3 to 39.5) |
| qSOFA | 75.4 (69.2 to 81.6) | 31.6 (23.7 to 39.5) | 60.3 (53.9 to 66.6) | 48.3 (37.8 to 58.8) |
| NEWS >4 | 79.5 (71.1 to 88.0) | 30.3 (24.3 to 36.2) | 30.6 (24.6 to 36.5) | 79.3 (70.8 to 87.8) |
PPV, NPV, sensitivity and specificity show percentage and 95 % CI.
NEWS, National Early Warning Score; NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; qSOFA, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment; SIRS, systemic inflammatory response syndrome.