Table 4

Summary of model estimates and assumptions

Tobacco control policyEstimatesAssumptionsLimitations
Cigarette taxes

  • See table 1. Price elasticities by age group.

  • Tax is passed on directly to consumers.

  • Homogeneous price elasticity across price ranges.

  • Initiation effects are constant going forward.

  • Cessation effects decay over time.

  • Does not include benefits associated with reduced secondhand smoke exposure.

  • Does not account for population heterogeneity across US states.

  • Does not adjust for the effects of inflation (cigarette taxes).

Smoke-free air laws

  • Relative effect of policy by venue is

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  • Comprehensive law with no existing coverage:

    • decreases initiation probabilities by 10%

    • increases cessation probabilities by 50%.

  • Within 5 years, comprehensive laws reduce smoking prevalence by:

    • 10% for age <65 years

    • 5% for age 65+ years.

  • Initiation effects are constant going forward.

  • Cessation effects decay over time.

Tobacco control programme expenditures

  • Increasing expenditures from 0% to 100% of CDC recommendations leads to:

    • 10% decrease in initiation probabilities

    • 12.5% increase in cessation probabilities.

  • Increasing and then decreasing returns going from 0% to 100% of CDC recommendations.

  • Level of investment is maintained each year.

  • Initiation effects are constant going forward.

  • Cessation effects decay over time.

Minimum age of legal access (MLA)

  • See table 2. Effects of raising the MLA to tobacco products.

  • Local MLA policies are not affected by less progressive state or national policies.

  • Initiation effects are constant over time.

  • No impact on cessation.

  • CDC, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.