Table 3

Effect of treatment by tertile of baseline CVD risk score

Active placeboAdjusted HR
(95% CI)*
ARR %
(95% CI)†
NNT
Event (rate per 1000 patient-year)
Any event
 Low22 (8.9)23 (10.0)0.94 (0.52 to 1.70)−0.3 (−2.7 to 2,1)−370 (−37 to 47)
 Moderate56 (26.1)67 (28.0)0.93 (0.65 to 1.33)1.1 (−2.9 to 5.2)87 (−34 to 19)
 High59 (24.8)75 (33.2)0.75 (0.53 to 1.06) 5.6 (1.6 to 9.6) 18 (10 to 64)
 P value0.640.05
All-cause mortality
 Low6 (2.4)6 (2.5)0.96 (0.30 to 3.01)−0.5 (−1.6 to 0.7)−213 (−63 to 153)
 Moderate10 (4.4)13 (5.1)0.81 (0.35 to 1.86)0.2 (−1.7 to 2.1)476 (−60 to 48)
 High9 (3.5)14 (5.7)0.60 (0.26 to 1.40) 2.2 (0.5 to 3.9) 45 (25 to 196)
 P value0.78 0.04
Non-fatal event
 Low16 (6.4)17 (7.4)0.93 (0.47 to 1.87)0.2 (−1.9 to 2.3)476 (−52 to 43)
 Moderate46 (21.3)54 (22.2)0.96 (0.65 to 1.43)0.9 (−2.8 to 4.5)118 (−35 to 22)
 High50 (20.9)61 (26.6)0.80 (0.55 to 1.16)3.3 (−0.4 to 7.0)30 (−249 to 14)
 P value0.770.36
Major CVD event
 Low17 (6.8)18 (7.8)0.98 (0.50 to 1.91)0.2 (−1.9 to 2.3)476 (−52 to 43)
 Moderate50 (23.2)58 (24.00.98 (0.67 to 1.43)0.6 (−3.2 to 4.5)164 (−31 to 22)
 High50 (20.9)64 (28.0)0.76 (0.52 to 1.10) 4.3 (0.5 to 8.1) 23 (12 to 193)
 P value0.620.17
Any CHD
 Low17 (6.8)14 (6.0)1.21 (0.59 to 2.48)−0.4 (−2.4 to 1.6)−256 (−41 to 61)
 Moderate39 (17.9)47 (19.2)0.93 (0.60 to 1.42)1.1 (−3.0 to 5.1)94 (−33 to 19)
 High41 (17.0)45 (19.2)0.90 (0.59 to 1.37)1.9 (−1.4 to 5.3)52 (−72 to 19)
 P value0.830.47
  • Bold values: P<0.05.

  • P value indicated p for interaction.

  • *Adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, screening centres and systolic blood pressure.

  • †As estimated by the Kaplan-Meier curve.

  • ARR, absolute risk reduction; CHD, coronary heart disease; CVD, cardiovascular disease; NNT, number needed to treat; NNTB, NNT (benefit); NNTH, NNT (harm).