Table 2

Summary description of the six predictive models

MortalityHospitalisationsMultiple hospitalisationsUsers with high healthcare costs (PCT85)
All causesCOPD relatedAll causesCOPD related
C-statistics (AUC)0.8290.7660.8070.8030.8650.763
CovariatesOR
Sex
  Male111111
  Female0.7010.8250.8850.8180.8230.84
Age (years)
  40–54111111
  55–641.6931.2541.4351.3081.4280.884
  65–742.1031.5061.6751.5761.70.91
  75–843.7492.0542.0171.9831.6340.898
 >849.9112.8272.0492.3351.2720.681
Admissions
  Group A111111
  Group B1.3941.9034.6991.9526.9521.59
  Group C1.3682.0398.5922.26615.2141.577
GMA grade
  Low111111
  Moderate1.8261.8961.6442.1281.6493.125
  High4.3163.9982.6465.4192.8528.858
  Very high8.9197.8513.54811.0423.89120.285
Emergency room visits
  0111111
  1–21.1061.4051.371.5261.5051.353
  3–51.2761.8651.6842.1792.0131.771
 >51.6432.6152.2353.3543.0322.428
Social support
  No111111
  Yes2.2891.0080.8920.9170.9220.877
  • The intensities of grey background colour reflect the magnitude of ORs, being white when value is one and stronger grey when they are closer to 0 or have a higher positive value.

  • Admissions:

  • Group A corresponds to patients with no registries of hospital admissions within the period 2011–2014; Group B includes patients with history of admissions before 2014, but without admissions in that year; Group C includes patients with hospital admissions during 2014. Graphical representation and details of the six predictive models with the corresponding 95% CIs of the ORs are shown in the online supplementary figures 2S–7S and tables 2S–7S.

  • AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; GMA, Adjusted Morbidity Groups.