Five core components of Theory of Change (adapted from De Silva et al 57)
| Terminology | Definitions | Examples |
| Outcomes (ie, ‘Pre-conditions’ or ‘Milestones’) | ||
| Short-term, intermediate | The intended results of the interventions; things that do not exist now, but need to exist in order for the logical causal pathway not to be broken | Change in knowledge, attitudes and skills of lay health workers to enable them to successfully deliver talking therapy |
| Long-term | The final outcome the programme is able to change on its own | Reduced prevalence of CMDs in the population receiving talking therapy |
| Ultimate (ie, ‘Impact’ or ‘Goal’) | The real-world change you are trying to affect | Reduced prevalence of CMDs among survivors of humanitarian crises |
| Interventions (ie, ‘Strategies’) | The different components of the complex intervention | Training of lay workers on the delivery of talking therapy |
| Indicators | Things you can measure and document to determine whether you are making progress towards, or have achieved, each outcome | Reduction in symptom severity for CMDs |
| Rationale | Key beliefs that underlie why one outcome…(leads to) the next, and why you must do certain activities to produce the desired outcome | Humanitarian responders need to be educated about signs and symptoms of CMDs in order for CMDs to be detected during crises. |
| Assumptions | An external condition beyond the control of the project that must exist for the outcome to be achieved | Task-sharing with lay workers is socially and politically acceptable. |
CMD, common mental disorders.