Table 2

Associations of public expenditure on social care (PES) and resources as potential mediating factors with care home deaths. Analyses were conducted for 0–2 years of interval between PES and subsequent care home deaths

Potential mediators	Lag* (year)	Care home deaths per 100 000 persons
		PES in £10 million		Potential mediator (thousands)†
		β (95% CI)	p Value	β (95% CI)	p Value
No. of hospital doctors	0	−6.01 (–7.64 to −4.38)	<0.0001	0.21 (0.006 to 0.41)	0.06
	1	−6.66 (–8.65 to −4.38)	<0.0001	0.57 (0.32 to 0.83)	0.0002
	2	−6.85 (–9.03 to −4.67)	<0.0001	0.94 (0.64 to 1.24)	<0.0001
No. of GPs	0	−6.01 (–7.66 to −4.36)	<0.0001	0.87 (–0.009 to 1.76)	0.06
	1	−6.52 (–8.53 to −4.51)	<0.0001	2.35 (1.25 to 3.45)	0.0004
	2	−6.28 (–8.42 to −4.15)	<0.0001	3.67 (2.43 to 4.90)	<0.0001
No. of nurses	0	−4.49 (–6.38 to −2.59)	0.0001	−0.09 (–0.28 to 0.09)	0.34
	1	−0.84 (–2.69 to 1.01)	0.39	−0.40 (–0.58 to −0.29)	0.0001
	2	1.80 (–0.12 to 3.73)	0.08	−0.48 (–0.67 to −0.29)	<0.0001
No. of scientific, therapeutic and technical staff	0	−6.15 (–7.83 to −4.48)	<0.0001	−0.20 (0.01 to 0.38)	0.04
	1	−6.89 (–8.96 to −4.82)	<0.0001	0.52 (0.28 to 0.76)	0.0002
	2	−7.12 (–9.31 to −4.93)	<0.0001	0.85 (0.59 to 1.11)	<0.0001
No. of ambulance staff	0	−6.09 (–7.73 to −4.46)	<0.0001	2.27 (0.17 to 4.37)	0.04
	1	−5.94 (–8.11 to −3.77)	<0.0001	4.60 (1.78 to 7.42)	0.004
	2	−5.09 (–7.70 to −2.47)	0.001	6.72 (3.14 to 10.29)	0.001
No. of clinical support staff	0	−5.01 (–6.74 to −3.38)	<0.0001	−0.02 (–0.26 to 0.22)	0.85
	1	−1.72 (–3.75 to 0.31)	0.11	−0.42 (–0.69 to −0.14)	0.007
	2	−0.49 (–1.87 to 2.86)	0.69	−0.43 (–0.75 to −0.11)	0.02
No. of infrastructure support staff	0	−5.78 (–8.63 to −2.91)	0.0006	0.09 (-0.23 to 0.40)	0.59
	1	−5.31 (–9.43 to −1.20)	0.02	0.21 (–0.23 to 0.66)	0.35
	2	−6.55 (–10.71 to −2.40)	0.006	0.62 (0.18 to 1.06)	0.01
No. of overnight beds	0	−5.56 (–7.10 to −4.19)	<0.0001	−0.13 (–0.25 to −0.008)	<0.0001
	1	−5.42 (–6.95 to −3.90)	<0.0001	−0.34 (–0.48 to −0.21)	<0.0001
	2	−4.38 (–5.92 to −2.84)	<0.0001	−0.50 (–0.65 to −0.35)	<0.0001
No. of social care staff with accommodation	0	−5.20 (–6.64 to −3.77)	0.01	0.09 (–0.05 to 0.23)	0.21
	1	−4.12 (–5.94 to −2.29)	0.01	0.22 (0.02 to 0.42)	0.04
	2	−2.03 (–4.21 to 0.16)	0.01	0.22 (–0.03 to 0.47)	0.09
No. of social care staff without accommodation	0	−5.69 (–7.19 to −4.20)	<0.0001	0.02 (–0.0002 to 0.04)	0.06
	1	−5.52 (–7.21 to −3.83)	<0.0001	0.05 (0.03 to 0.07)	0.0003
	2	−4.67 (–6.30 to −3.09)	0.009	0.08 (0.05 to 0.10)	<0.0001

↵*Lag year of which PEH or PES preceded mortality rates.
↵†Estimates are shown for each corresponding factor in the left hand column.
GP, general practitioner; PEH, public expenditure on healthcare; PES, public expenditure on social care.