Table 3

Projection of prevalence of diabetes, total population and number of medical visits by simulation scenarios, population 50 years and older, FEM-Mexico simulation 2012-2050

Estimate by scenario2000200620122020203020402050
Diabetes prevalence (%)
 Observed12.0015.7419.34
 No intervention19.3426.2430.6932.9134.00
 10% incidence reduction19.3425.2329.2931.2932.25
 30% incidence reduction19.3423.3226.2727.7428.64
 60% incidence reduction19.3420.4221.3522.0522.76
Total population
 No intervention20 727 41526 781 87734 641 63941 652 42948 010 723
 10% incidence reduction20 727 41526 794 52534 705 94141 774 46148 180 921
 30% incidence reduction20 727 41526 814 80934 832 22342 027 49248 563 485
 60% incidence reduction20,727,41526 851 57535 021 74542 468 76249 191 108
Number of medical visits (annual)
 No intervention102 183 113151 881 059216 505 084274 138 503324 866 875
 10% incidence reduction102 183 113151 328 257215 568 988273 165 155323 819 400
 30% incidence reduction102 183 113150 258 034213 441 667270 708 771321 751 070
 60% incidence reduction102 183 113148 650 611209 909 778267 031 679318 180 682
Number of diabetics (annual)
 No intervention4 009 2907 364 73811 155 12414 407 67317 209 864
 10% incidence reduction4 009 2907 083 00310 660 83113 737 58216,380,310
 30% incidence reduction4 009 2906 548 4189 587 59712 240 96614 648 013
 60% incidence reduction4 009 2905 736 9387 826 9709 816 17611 773 857
Averted cases of diabetes (vs no intervention)
 10% incidence reduction281 735494 293670 092829 554
 30% incidence reduction816 3201 567 5272 166 7082 561 851
 60% incidence reduction1 627 7993 328 1534 591 4975 436 007
  • FEM, Future Elderly Model.