Table 2

Incidence equations for mortality, chronic diseases, smoking status and BMI for the population 50 years and older, FEM-Mexico 2001–2003 (marginal effects)

MortalityDiabetesHypertensionHeart attackCancerLung diseaseStrokeSmoke (Current)Log BMI
Two-year incidence2.34.316.11.40.42.70.58.53.3
Marginal effects
Lag age 50–64 0.002 −0.001 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000 −0.003 0.002
Lag age 65–740.001−0.002−0.0020.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 −0.001 −0.004
Lag age 75+ 0.003 0.000−0.0010.000−0.0010.0010.000 −0.004 0.000
Male 0.017 0.004 −0.049 0.0040.000−0.001−0.001 0.124 −0.004
Basic school0.0050.021−0.039−0.0090.005−0.014−0.023 0.028
High school0.012 −0.030 −0.005−0.0020.006−0.0070.0050.0150.005
College −0.013 −0.019 −0.042 0.0050.006−0.012−0.0030.0110.012
Lag hypertension0.003 0.015 0.016 0.004 −0.036 0.007
Lag diabetes 0.021 0.034 0.007 0.010 −0.019 −0.003
Lag heart attack 0.017 0.002−0.0210.013
Lag cancer 0.074 −0.002−0.010−0.001
Lag lung disease 0.011 0.005 −0.003
Lag stroke 0.027 −0.0250.001
Lag 1 IADL0.001−0.019−0.001
Lag 2+IADL0.000 −0.036 −0.014
Lag 1 ADL 0.013 0.0140.001
Lag 2 ADL 0.057 0.0350.008
Lag 3+ADL 0.154 0.0380.014
Lag former smoker0.003−0.0100.0030.002−0.0020.0030.002
Lag widowed 0.012 −0.005−0.001−0.0020.002−0.0010.0140.000
Lag NOT exercise 0.013 0.008 0.020 0.007 0.0010.0060.002 0.120 0.010
More urban locality0.0050.007−0.008−0.0030.001 −0.010 0.001 0.014 0.017
Lag BMI less than 30 0.042 0.111 0.114 0.008 0.968
Lag BMI 30 or higher0.0300.0400.186−0.008 0.616
  • ADL, activities of daily living; BMI, body mass index; FEM, Future Elderly Model; IADL, instrumental activities of daily living.

  • Bold text indicates statistically significant values (p≤0.05)