Table 1

Model parameters

NameDeterministic
value
RangeDistributionSource
MinimumMaximum
Discount rates
 Cost discount rate0.035FixedPharmacoeconomic guidelines (NICE)17
 Outcome discount rate0.035FixedPharmacoeconomic guidelines (NICE)17
Costs*
 Costs of TARGIT-IORT206915522586TriangularCarl Zeiss, UK
 Costs of EBRT309223193865TriangularHRG code SC29Z, NHS reference costs
2012–201333
 Annual cost of being disease free12009001200TriangularHRG code JA09H, NHS reference costs
2012–201333
 Annual cost of local recurrence423131735289TriangularMansel et al 19
 Annual cost of distant recurrence541740636771TriangularMansel et al 19
Probabilities
 Probability of disease free to local recurrence in TARGIT-IORT patients0.004240.003180.0053TriangularVaidya et al 7
 Probability of disease free to local recurrence in EBRT patients0.002210.001660.00276Triangular
 Probability of disease free to distant recurrence in TARGIT-IORT patients0.009840.007380.0123TriangularVaidya et al 7
 Probability of disease free to distant recurrence in EBRT patients0.00960.00720.012TriangularVaidya et al 7
 Probability of disease free to non-breast cancer death in TARGIT-IORT patients0.0030.00250.00375TriangularVaidya et al 7
 Probability of disease free to non-breast cancer death in EBRT patients0.0090.006750.01125TriangularVaidya et al 7
 Probability of breast cancer death in TARGIT-IORT patients0.006710.005030.00838TriangularVaidya et al 7
 Probability of breast cancer death in EBRT patients0.00550.004120.00687TriangularVaidya et al 7
 Probability of distant recurrence to breast cancer death in TARGIT-IORT patients0.6820.5110.853TriangularCalculated
 Probability of distant recurrence to breast cancer death in EBRT patients0.5690.4260.710TriangularCalculated
 Probability of local recurrence to disease free1FixedExpert opinion/model assumption
Utilities
 Utility value in disease-free patients0.9890.7421TriangularMansel et al 19
 Utility value in local recurrence0.9110.6831TriangularMansel et al 19
 Utility value in distant recurrence0.8820.6611TriangularMansel et al 19
  • *All costs are in 2014 British pound sterling.

  • EBRT, external-beam radiation therapy; HRG, Health Resource Group; NHS, National Health Service; NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; TARGIT-IORT, targeted intraoperative radio therapy.