Table 2

Selected model input parameter values and ranges

Parameter
Initialisation Mean Min Max Source
 Age distributionOS1*US Census Bureau, Population Division103
 Sex distributionUS Census Bureau, Population Division103
 Ethnicity distributionUS Census Bureau, Population Division103
 High sugar consumption57.278% 38.186%85.917%Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Rodríguez et al, Imamura et al 3 35 42
Baseline transition probabilities Mean chance Min Max Source
 Non-NAFLD -> steatosis0.01000.0067000.01500Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112
 Non-NAFLD -> NASH0.00030.0002010.00045Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112
 Steatosis -> NASH0.00600.0040200.00900Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112
 Steatosis -> cirrhosis0.00020.0001340.00030Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112
 NASH -> cirrhosis0.00200.0013400.00300Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–112
 NASH -> HCC0.0001†0.0000670.00015Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–115
 NASH -> liver death0.00380.0025460.00570Lazo et al, Stepanova et al, Söderberg et al, Haflidadottir et al 116–119
 Cirrhosis -> HCC0.0200†0.0134000.03000Anstee et al, Bruno et al, Ekstedt et al, Haukeland et al, Musso et al, Omagari et al, Rafiq et al, Wong et al, Zelber-Sagi et al 104–115
 Cirrhosis -> liver death0.03400.0227800.05100Lazo et al, Stepanova et al, Söderberg et al, Haflidadottir et al 116–119
 HCC -> liver death0.50000.3350000.75000Lazo et al, Stepanova et al, Söderberg et al, Haflidadottir et al 116–119
 Non-CHD -> CHD0.0045†0.0030150.00675National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute120 121
 CHD -> CHD death0.0100†0.0067000.01500Mozaffarian et al; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute5 6 120
 Non-T2D -> T2D0.0045†0.0030150.00675Geiss et al, Fishman et al 72 122
 T2D -> T2D death0.0100†0.0067000.01500Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Geiss et al, Fishman et al 6 72 122
 Healthy weight -> overweight0.05000.0335000.07500Daouli et al, Gordon-Larsen et al, Parikh et al, Williamson et al 123–126
 Healthy weight -> obese0.00600.0040200.00900Daouli et al, Gordon-Larsen et al, Parikh et al, Williamson et al 123–126
 Overweight -> obese0.01800.0120600.02700Daouli et al, Gordon-Larsen et al, Parikh et al, Williamson et al 123–126
 Each alive state -> non-disease-related death0.0100†0.0067000.01500Centers for Disease Control and Prevention6
Risk factors (ORs) Mean value Min Max Source
 NHB ethnicity for progression within NAFLD0.930.701.00Schneider et al 127
 Hispanic ethnicity for progression within NAFLD1.671.222.22Schneider et al 127
 Overweight for progression within NAFLD2.191.603.38Bruno et al, Kelishadi et al, Peng et al, Dassanayake et al, Lee et al, Zeb et al, Chan et al 105 128–133
 Obesity for progression within NAFLD3.142.075.28Bruno et al, Kelishadi et al, Peng et al, Dassanayake et al, Lee et al, Zeb et al, Chan et al 105 128–133
 High sugar consumption for progression within NAFLD2.001.503.00Abid et al, Papandreou et al 38 134
 NAFLD for TP non-CHD -> CHD2.311.663.62Wong et al, Hamaguchi et al, Fan et al, Targher et al, Treeprasertsuk et al 135–139
 Overweight for TP non-CHD -> CHD1.221.121.32Canoy et al, Lu et al, Gruson et al, de Hollander et al, Labounty et al, Mongraw-Chaffin et al, Park and Kim, Taylor et al 140–147
 Obesity for TP non-CHD -> CHD1.601.431.79Canoy et al, Lu et al, Gruson et al, de Hollander et al, Labounty et al, Mongraw-Chaffin et al, Park and Kim, Taylor et al 140–147
 T2D for TP non-CHD -> CHD2.241.643.06Peters et al 148
 NAFLD for TP non-T2D -> T2D2.731.874.46Shibata et al, Kim et al, Yamada et al, Sung and Kim, Kasturiratne et al, Abdullah et al, Nyamdorj et al 149–155
 Overweight for TP non-T2D -> T2D2.181.593.36Rolando et al, Rodbard et al, Kodama et al, Bell et al, Guh et al, Emond et al, Grimes et al 156–162
 Obesity for TP non-T2D -> T2D3.362.185.72Rolando et al, Rodbard et al, Kodama et al, Bell et al, Guh et al, Emond et al, Grimes et al 156–162
 NAFLD for progression within the BMI chain2.191.603.38Bruno et al, Kelishadi et al, Peng et al, Dassanayake et al, Lee et al, Zeb et al, Chan et al 105 128–133
 High sugar consumption for progression within the BMI chain2.601.206.00Emond et al, Grimes et al 161 162
  • *See online supplementary table 1.

  • †Age-specific, sex-specific and/or ethnicity-specific values are specified in the online supplement.

  • ‡Transition probabilities for regression to less severe disease are specified in the online supplement.

  • BMI, body mass index; CHD, coronary heart disease; HCC, hepatocellular carcinoma; NAFLD, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (steatosis, NASH and cirrhosis); NASH, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis; NHB, non-Hispanic black; T2D, type 2 diabetes; TP, transition probability.