Table 3

The incidence and ORs (95% CIs) of diabetes for different patterns of weight change over 10 years among urban residents in Japan

Exposure variablesAcquired DM/no. of subjects (incidence, %)CrudeMultivariable
Men (no. for multivariate analysis=10 094)
Baseline agePer 10 years1.44 (1.33 to 1.55)1.44 (1.29 to 1.61)
Weight change from 20 years of age, kg< −57/1438 (0.5)2.18 (1.14 to 4.18)1.68 (0.75 to 3.80)
−5 to +573/10 646 (0.7)RefRef
+5 to +1031/3200 (1.0)1.98 (1.45 to 2.72)1.54 (1.03 to 2.30)
>+1078/2166 (3.6)3.37 (2.54 to 4.48)2.08 (1.40 to 3.10)
Baseline BMI, kg/m2<18.56/387 (1.6)1.35 (0.57 to 3.16)0.88 (0.29 to 2.70)
18.5–2249/4236 (1.2)RefRef
22–25168/7220 (2.3)2.04 (1.48 to 2.89)1.73 (1.14 to 2.63)
>25190/4699 (4.0)3.60 (2.62 to 4.94)2.52 (1.60 to 3.95)
Weight change pattern over 10 yearsSustained loss66/1903 (3.5)1.39 (1.03 to 1.87)1.11 (0.77 to 1.59)
Loss-gain87/4644 (1.9)0.74 (0.56 to 0.97)0.63 (0.45 to 0.89)
Stable142/5621 (2.5)RefRef
Gain-loss38/3063 (1.2)0.49 (0.34 to 0.70)0.51 (0.32 to 0.82)
Sustained gain80/1311 (6.1)2.51 (1.89 to 3.32)3.07 (2.15 to 4.39)
SmokingNone123/6385 (1.9)RefRef
Ex-smoker150/5940 (2.5)1.32 (1.04 to 1.68)0.97 (0.71 to 1.31)
Current-smoker140/4217 (3.3)1.75 (1.37 to 2.23)1.73 (1.25 to 2.34)
Alcohol drinkingNone69/2250 (3.1)RefRef
Sometimes48/1667 (2.9)0.94 (0.65 to 1.36)0.96 (0.66 to 1.40)
Usually156/6177 (2.5)0.82 (0.61 to 1.09)0.78 (0.58 to 1.05)
Amount of walking per dayPer 30 min0.996 (0.92 to 1.08)1.01 (0.92 to 1.11)
Physical activity (sessions/week)0–185/3282 (2.6)RefRef
1–2108/4105 (2.6)1.02 (0.76 to 1.36)1.02 (0.76 to 1.36)
3–543/1541 (2.8)1.08 (0.74 to 1.57)0.98 (0.67 to 1.45)
6–737/1166 (3.2)1.23 (0.83 to 1.82)1.06 (0.69 to 1.62)
Women (no. for multivariate analysis=10 614)
Baseline agePer 10 years1.66 (1.48 to 1.87)1.78 (1.50 to 2.12)
Weight change from 20 years of age, kg<−511/439 (2.5)0.71 (0.33 to 1.54)0.48 (0.18 to 1.25)
−5 to +561/5243 (1.2)RefRef
+5 to +10109/4779 (2.3)1.42 (0.93 to 2.16)0.96 (0.55 to 1.65)
>+10232/6081 (3.8)5.41 (3.92 to 7.47)2.10 (1.20 to 3.67)
Baseline BMI, kg/m2<18.520/2916 (0.7)1.24 (0.74 to 2.08)1.47 (0.76 to 2.86)
18.5–2252/9388 (0.6)RefRef
22–2560/3676 (1.6)2.98 (2.05 to 4.33)2.01 (1.21 to 3.34)
>2557/1470 (3.9)7.24 (4.95 to 10.59)2.91 (1.53 to 5.52)
Weight change pattern over 10 yearsSustained loss24/1661 (1.4)2.11 (1.25 to 3.54)1.48 (0.80 to 2.74)
Loss-gain32/4022 (0.7)1.15 (0.72 to 1.86)0.72 (0.39 to 1.34)
Stable36/5212 (1.3)RefRef
Gain-loss30/4630 (0.6)0.94 (0.58 to 1.53)1.05 (0.57 to 1.95)
Sustained gain67/1925 (3.5)5.19 (3.45 to 7.80)7.00 (4.11 to 11.94)
SmokingNone156/14,194 (1.1)RefRef
Ex-smoker17/1789 (1.0)0.86 (0.52 to 1.1.43)0.85 (0.45 to 1.61)
Current-smoker16/1467 (1.1)0.99 (0.59 to 1.67)1.20 (0.63 to 2.32)
Alcohol drinkingNone78/5669 (1.4)RefRef
Sometimes20/2035 (1.0)0.71 (0.43 to 1.17)0.91 (0.55 to 1.52)
Usually27/2910 (0.9)0.67 (0.43 to 1.04)0.95 (0.60 to 1.51)
Amount of walking per dayPer 30 min1.01 (0.93 to 1.11)1.01 (0.90 to 1.13)
Physical activity (sessions/week)0–137/3894 (1.0)RefRef
1–242/3760 (1.1)1.18 (0.76 to 1.84)1.11 (0.70 to 1.75)
3–527/1874 (1.4)1.52 (0.93 to 2.52)1.14 (0.67 to 1.94)
6–719/1086 (1.7)1.86 (1.06 to 3.24)1.43 (0.79 to 2.60)
  • BMI, body mass index; DM, diabetes mellitus; Ref, reference group.