Table 4

The incidence and ORs (95% CIs) of diabetes for different patterns of weight change over 10 years among rural residents in Japan

Exposure variablesAcquired DM/no. of subjects (incidence, %)CrudeMultivariable
Men (no. for multivariate analysis=4818)
Baseline agePer 10 years1.36 (1.08 to 1.72)1.60 (1.24 to 2.05)
Baseline BMI, kg/m2<18.50/167 (0)
18.5–2210/1425 (0.7)RefRef
22–2521/2079 (1.0)1.44 (0.68 to 3.08)1.69 (0.79 to 3.63)
>2535/1148 (3.1)4.45 (2.19 to 9.03)5.81 (2.82 to 11.97)
Weight change pattern over 10 yearsSustained loss4/725 (0.6)0.43 (0.15 to 1.25)0.36 (0.12 to 1.05)
Loss-gain13/681 (1.9)1.50 (0.75 to 3.00)1.58 (0.78 to 3.17)
Stable22/1719 (1.3)RefRef
Gain-loss4/916 (0.4)0.34 (0.12 to 0.99)0.44 (0.15 to 1.29)
Sustained gain23/778 (3.0)2.35 (1.30 to 4.24)3.15 (1.70 to 5.83)
SmokingNone23/1695 (1.4)RefRef
Ex-smoker8/998 (0.8)0.59 (0.26 to 1.32)0.72 (0.32 to 1.64)
Current-smoker35/2126 (1.7)1.22 (0.72 to 2.07)1.50 (0.85 to 2.62)
DrinkingNone11/1071 (1.0)RefRef
Drinker55/3748 (1.5)1.44 (0.75 to 2.75)1.52 (0.79 to 2.94)
Women (no. for multivariate analysis=4852)
Baseline agePer 10 years1.43 (0.99 to 2.06)1.23 (0.83 to 1.84)
Baseline BMI, kg/m2<18.50/411 (0)
18.5–227/2135 (0.3)RefRef
22–2514/1563 (0.9)2.75 (1.11 to 6.82)2.69 (1.07 to 6.75)
>2513/744 (1.8)5.41 (2.15 to 13.60)5.29 (2.07 to 13.51)
Weight change pattern over 10 yearsSustained loss3/863 (0.3)0.37 (0.11 to 1.29)0.32 (0.09 to 1.10)
Loss-gain3/757 (0.4)0.42 (0.12 to 1.47)0.41 (0.12 to 1.44)
Stable15/1615 (0.9)RefRef
Gain-loss5/827 (0.6)0.65 (0.24 to 1.79)0.77 (0.28 to 2.14)
Sustained gain8/791 (1.0)1.09 (0.46 to 2.58)1.43 (0.59 to 3.48)
SmokingNone2/646 (0.3)RefRef
Ex-smoker29/3822 (0.8)2.45 (0.58 to 10.31)2.19 (0.52 to 9.26)
Current-smoker3/375 (0.8)2.60 (0.43 to 15.60)3.33 (0.55 to 20.28)
DrinkingNone31/3542 (0.9)RefRef
Drinker3/1311 (0.2)0.26 (0.08 to 0.85)0.29 (0.09 to 0.95)
  • BMI, body mass index; DM, diabetes mellitus; Ref, reference group.