Table 5

The incidence and ORs (95% CIs) of diabetes for different patterns of weight change over 10 years in middle-aged residents (45–64 years) in Japan

Exposure variablesAcquired DM/no. of subjects (incidence, %)CrudeMultivariable
Urban middle-aged men (no. for multivariate analysis=4882)
Weight change pattern over 10 yearsSustained loss35/981 (3.6)1.04 (0.65 to 1.67)0.97 (0.60 to 1.55)
Loss-gain62/2203 (2.8)0.79 (0.53 to 1.18)0.74 (0.49 to 1.11)
Stable100/2749 (3.6)RefRef
Gain-loss26/1098 (2.4)0.56 (0.32 to 0.999)0.57 (0.32 to 1.01)
Sustained gain50/489 (10.2)3.09 (2.00 to 4.76)3.13 (2.00 to 4.89)
Urban middle-aged women (no. for multivariate analysis=5053)
Weight change pattern over 10 yearsSustained loss15/994 (1.5)1.30 (0.62 to 2.73)1.13 (0.53 to 2.41)
Loss-gain20/1992 (1.0)0.87 (0.43 to 1.77)0.76 (0.37 to 1.57)
Stable24/2285 (1.1)RefRef
Gain-loss17/1642 (1.0)0.74 (0.34 to 1.62)0.80 (0.36 to 1.77)
Sustained gain40/603 (6.6)5.62 (3.05 to 10.37)6.97 (3.67 to 13.25)
Rural middle-aged men (no. for multivariate analysis=2937)
Weight change pattern over 10 yearsSustained loss3/447 (0.7)0.48 (0.14 to 1.66)0.42 (0.12 to 1.47)
Loss-gain11/449 (2.5)1.78 (0.81 to 3.91)1.76 (0.80 to 3.87)
Stable15/1078 (1.4)RefRef
Gain-loss4/546 (0.7)0.52 (0.17 to 1.58)0.58 (0.19 to 1.77)
Sustained gain12/417 (2.9)2.10 (0.98 to 4.53)2.48 (1.12 to 5.49)
Rural middle-aged women (no. for multivariate analysis=3347)
Weight change pattern over 10 yearsSustained loss1/638 (0.2)0.16 (0.02 to 1.25)0.14 (0.02 to 1.01)
Loss-gain3/579 (0.5)0.54 (0.15 to 1.92)0.54 (0.15 to 1.94)
Stable11/1140 (1.0)RefRef
Gain-loss4/558 (0.7)0.74 (0.24 to 2.34)0.82 (0.26 to 2.62)
Sustained gain5/432 (1.2) 1.20 (0.42 to 3.48)1.30 (0.44 to 3.84)
  • BMI, body mass index; DM, diabetes mellitus; Ref, reference group.