Table 2

Marginal models examining the effect of social service and public health spending per individual living in poverty on teenage birth rates, adjusted for state characteristics

B (95% CI)
Overall sample (n=250)Sample without AK and WY (n=240)
UnadjustedAdjustedUnadjustedAdjusted
Social spending rate†
 Linear effect−0.61 (−0.66 to −0.56)**−0.20 (−0.31 to −0.08)**−0.65 (−0.70 to −0.61)**−0.45 (−0.57 to −0.33)**
 Quadratic effect0.01 (0.01 to 0.01)**0.003 (0.002 to 0.005)**0.01 (0.01 to 0.01)**0.007 (0.005 to 0.009)**
% Under 182.58 (1.84 to 3.33)**0.68 (0.25 to 1.10)**2.65 (1.87 to 3.42)**0.52 (0.11 to −0.93)*
% Female−1.32 (−3.29 to 0.65)−1.35 (−3.10 to 0.39)−0.85 (−3.34 to 1.64)0.09 (−1.69 to 1.87)
% Non-Hispanic White−0.23 (−0.35 to −0.12)**−0.06 (−0.12 to 0.01)−0.25 (−0.36 to −0.13)**−0.12 (−0.18 to −0.05)**
% Non-Hispanic Black0.40 (0.25 to 0.54)**−0.19 (−0.34 to −0.04)*0.43 (0.29 to 0.58)**−0.19 (−0.33 to −0.06)**
% Hispanic0.24 (0.09 to 0.38)**−0.07 (−0.17 to 0.03)0.25 (0.10 to 0.39)**0.04 (−0.06 to 0.14)
% Children living in single-parent home1.21 (0.96 to 1.46)** 0.92 (0.67 to 1.17)**1.25 (1.00 to 1.50)**0.68 (0.43 to 0.94)**
% Individuals with a high school diploma−1.98 (−2.29 to −1.67)**−0.94 (−1.23 to −0.65)**−2.22 (−2.52 to −1.91)**−0.66 (−0.93 to −0.39)**
Unemployment rate−0.54 (−1.26 to 0.17)−0.38 (−0.72 to −0.03)*−0.51 (−1.25 to 0.23)−0.69 (−1.00 to −0.37)**
% Individuals living below poverty2.68 (2.35 to 3.02)**0.49 (−0.16 to 1.15)2.93 (2.61 to 3.25)**−0.22 (−0.85 to 0.40)
% Urban−0.16 (−0.25 to −0.06)**−0.05 (−0.12 to 0.02)−0.15 (−0.25 to −0.05)**−0.03 (−0.09 to 0.03)
log(GDP/capita)−44.08 (−50.93 to −37.23)**15.71 (4.24 to 27.18)**−53.43 (−60.16 to −46.70)**5.83 (−4.71 to 16.36)
Medicaid−0.02 (−0.03 to 0.00)−0.02 (−0.03 to −0.01)**−0.01 (−0.03 to 0.00)−0.02 (−0.03 to −0.02)**
Region
 New England−25.91 (−28.90 to −22.92)**−10.24 (−13.18 to −7.31)**−25.91 (−28.88 to −22.95)**−6.06 (−8.95 to −3.16)**
 Mideast−18.79 (−21.98 to 15.61)**−3.29 (−5.97 to −0.60)*−18.79 (−21.95 to −15.64)**0.75 (−1.88 to 3.39)
 Great Lakes−12.33 (−15.52 to 9.15)**0.05 (−2.30 to 2.40)−12.33 (−15.49 to −9.18)**1.95 (−0.24 to 4.14)
 Plains−12.96 (−15.80 to −10.12)**0.32 (−2.10 to 2.75)−12.96 (−15.78 to −10.14)**1.75 (−0.50 to 4.00)
 SoutheastREFREFREFREF
 Southwest7.65 (4.19 to 11.10)**6.05 (2.82 to 9.28)**7.65 (4.22 to 11.07)**3.70 (0.76 to 6.64)*
 Rocky Mountain−10.38 (−13.56 to −7.20)**2.87 (−0.32 to 6.06)−12.11 (−15.54 to −8.69)**−0.27 (−3.48 to 2.94)
 Far West−10.48 (−13.46 to −7.49)**−1.31 (−4.41 to 1.80)−11.47 (−14.63 to −8.32)**0.26 (−2.57 to 3.08)
Year−2.50 (−3.47 to −1.53)**−2.25 (−2.68 to −1.82)**−2.49 (0.51)**−1.24 (−1.70 to −0.78)**

  • *p Value <0.05; **p value <0.01.

  • State characteristics, including social spending, were lagged 2 years.

  • †Social spending rate was centred at its mean; unit is per US$1000.

  • AK, Arkansas; GDP, gross domestic product; WY, Wyoming.