Logistic regression of factors predicting the development of tAP to sAP (CC admission or death)
| Parameter | Regression estimate* | SE |
|---|---|---|
| Intercept | 2.499 | 1.069 |
| T2 DM no insulin (yes/no) | −0.298 | 0.442 |
| Simvastatin 12 months prior (yes/no) | 0.221 | 0.151 |
| Number of prior AP emergency admission (+1 admission) | −0.259 | 0.123 |
| Angina or IHD (yes/no) | 0.379 | 0.161 |
| Hypertension (yes/no) | 0.360 | 0.161 |
| Test result calcium† at index admission (−0.1 mmol/L) | 0.156 | 0.038 |
| Age group (vs 80+) | ||
| 18–19 | −0.386 | 0.780 |
| 20–29 | −0.867 | 0.630 |
| 20–29† T2 DM (yes/no) | 1.235 | 1.279 |
| 30–39 | −0.879 | 0.614 |
| 30–39† T2 DM (yes/no) | 2.936 | 0.802 |
| 40–49 | 1.053 | 0.608 |
| 40–49† T2 (yes/no) | 0.643 | 0.686 |
| 50–59 | −0.342 | 0.596 |
| 50–59† T2 (yes/no) | 0.292 | 0.576 |
| 60–79 | −0.466 | 0.591 |
| 60–79† T2 (yes/no) | 0.890 | 0.487 |
| Alcohol flag† (yes/no) | 0.521 | 0.360 |
*Increase in logodds.
†19% missing calcium, 35% missing alcohol; 98% relative efficiency of multiple imputations with 10 imputations.
AP, acute pancreatitis; CC, critical care; DM, diabetes mellitus; nsAP, not meeting definition of sAP; sAP, severe AP; tAP, true AP.