TY - JOUR T1 - Can achievement at medical admission tests predict future performance in postgraduate clinical assessments? A UK-based national cohort study JF - BMJ Open JO - BMJ Open DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2021-056129 VL - 12 IS - 2 SP - e056129 AU - Lewis W Paton AU - I C McManus AU - Kevin Yet Fong Cheung AU - Daniel Thomas Smith AU - Paul A Tiffin Y1 - 2022/02/01 UR - http://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/2/e056129.abstract N2 - Objective To determine whether scores on two undergraduate admissions tests (BioMedical Admissions Test (BMAT) and University Clinical Aptitude Test (UCAT)) predict performance on the postgraduate Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians (MRCP) examination, including the clinical examination Practical Assessment of Clinical Examination Skills (PACES).Design National cohort study.Setting Doctors who graduated medical school between 2006 and 2018.Participants 3045 doctors who had sat BMAT, UCAT and the MRCP.Primary outcome measures Passing each section of the MRCP at the first attempt, including the clinical assessment PACES.Results Several BMAT and UCAT subtest scores displayed incremental predictive validity for performance on the first two (written) parts of the MRCP. Only aptitude and skills on BMAT (OR 1.34, 1.08 to 1.67, p=0.01) and verbal reasoning on UCAT (OR 1.34, 1.04 to 1.71, p=0.02) incrementally predicted passing PACES at the first attempt.Conclusions Our results imply that the abilities assessed by aptitude and skills and verbal reasoning may be the most important cognitive attributes, of those routinely assessed at selection, for predicting future clinical performance. Selectors may wish to consider placing particular weight on scales assessing these attributes if they wish to select applicants likely to become more competent clinicians. These results are potentially relevant in an international context too, since many admission tests used globally, such as the Medical College Admission Test, assess similar abilities.Data are available upon reasonable request. Data may be obtained from a third party and are not publicly available. The dataset supporting the conclusions of this article is available from UKMED on application (www.ukmed.ac.uk). UK Medical Education Database ('UKMED') P051 extract generated on 13 May 2019. Approved for publication on 20 November 2019. We are grateful to UKMED for the use of these data. However, UKMED bears no responsibility for their analysis or interpretation. The data include information derived from that collected by the Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited ('HESA') and provided to the GMC ('HESA Data'). Source: HESA Student Record 2002/03 to 2017/18 Copyright Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited. The Higher Education Statistics Agency Limited makes no warranty as to the accuracy of the HESA Data, cannot accept responsibility for any inferences or conclusions derived by third parties from data or other information supplied by it. ER -